On April 13, 2026, a cargo ship loaded with foreign trade containers sails toward the open sea in Jiaozhou Bay, Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China.
Cost Photo | Null Photo | Getty Images
China’s export growth slowed in March, while imports posted the strongest growth in more than four years, as manufacturers grappled with soaring commodity and energy prices due to supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflict.
Exports grew 2.5% in dollar terms last month from a year earlier, Chinese customs data showed on Wednesday, the slowest pace in six months, below the median estimate of 8.6% growth by analysts polled by Reuters, and slowing from a combined 21.8% increase in the first two months of this year.
Shipments to the United States, China’s largest trading partner, decreased by 26.5% from the previous year.
Imports in March increased by 27.8% year-on-year, marking the strongest growth since November 2021, significantly exceeding the expected 11.2% increase and accelerating from the 19.8% increase in the previous two months.
China released combined trade statistics for January and February due to fluctuations around the Lunar New Year, the country’s biggest holiday that follows the agricultural calendar.
The world’s second-largest economy continues to rely on trade for growth despite rising tensions with the United States and rising tariffs. Net exports accounted for about a third of China’s economy last year.
Although the Chinese government’s strategic oil reserves, diversified energy mix, and strict price controls have softened the blow from soaring oil prices, the export-dependent economy remains vulnerable to a global economic downturn due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
China’s Vice Minister of Customs Wang Jun said in a press conference on Tuesday that global oil prices have experienced “wild fluctuations”, creating a “complex and tough” trade environment.
China’s crude oil imports fell year-on-year in March, down nearly 2.8% in volume terms and about 4.4% in US dollar terms, according to CNBC’s official trade data calculations. Liquefied natural gas imports decreased by 10.6% in volume and 22% in value.
Meanwhile, the country’s rare earth imports more than tripled last month, while soybean imports rose just 20%.
Soaring commodity and energy prices stemming from the conflict are beginning to affect input costs for Chinese manufacturing, threatening to squeeze already thin company profits. The country’s ex-factory prices rose 0.5% in March, the first increase in more than three years.
However, as domestic demand remained under pressure, the rate of increase in the consumer price index was 1% from the previous year, slower than expected.
The country is scheduled to release its first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Thursday. Analysts polled by Reuters predict that growth will rise by 4.8%, compared with a three-year low of 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
