An overwhelming majority of Israelis oppose the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran declared last week and anticipate a return to war, a poll has found. The findings are consistent with analysts’ observations that Israeli political leaders have promised a final battle with Iran, but that the conflict has resulted in the survival of the Iranian government.
A poll released by the Israel Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) on Sunday found that 61% of respondents said they opposed the ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump 90 minutes before an apocalyptic deadline on Tuesday. The ceasefire promised to launch devastating attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure. Furthermore, 73% said they expected fighting with Iran to resume within the next year.
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And a majority of respondents (69%) said they supported continuing military action in Lebanon, regardless of talks between the Lebanese and Israeli governments that began in the United States on Tuesday. Israel continues to attack Lebanon, claiming it has been left out of the ceasefire, with attacks over the past week killing more than 300 people and leading to widespread condemnation.
The hope of many Israelis was that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would finally make good on his promise to end what has long been an existential threat to Iran. But the war that Israel launched with the United States against Iran on February 28 has failed to deliver on its promises, despite soaring death tolls and economic losses.
Instead, a two-week ceasefire was reportedly negotiated without Israeli involvement, with the Iranian state enduring battered but undaunted. The Iranian government’s ballistic missile arsenal remains partially intact, and its strategic reach may have expanded further, particularly through its seizure of the economically important Strait of Hormuz.
“He (Prime Minister Netanyahu) over-exaggerated what the war could accomplish, including the collapse of the regime and the complete destruction of the nuclear program and ballistic missiles, which it did not achieve,” said Dalia Scheindlin, an American-Israeli political consultant, pollster and journalist who recently wrote about various polls showing resistance to a ceasefire.
Much of the problem for Israeli leaders, she suggested, is long-standing public opposition to negotiations with Iran, including resistance to past agreements to limit its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, the kind the United States now appears to be considering.
“For years and decades,[Prime Minister Netanyahu]has completely destroyed and delegitimized the idea that diplomacy and agreements, negotiated agreements, have any impact,” she said, noting that Netanyahu had previously characterized talks between the United States and Iran as somehow posing an existential threat to Israel.
Not just Netanyahu
None of Israel’s political leaders question the reason for the attack on Iran. Instead, opposition leaders such as Yair Lapid sided with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Lapid told reporters that he supports a “just war against evil” and doubts whether Iran can sustain a long war against Israel and the United States.
Needless to say, the US ceasefire was seized upon by Lapid as an unequivocal surrender on Netanyahu’s part. “(Prime Minister Netanyahu) has turned our country into a protectorate that receives instructions over the phone on matters that touch the core of our national security,” Lapid wrote on social media after the ceasefire.
Left-wing Democratic Party leader Yair Golan was equally scathing. “Netanyahu lied,” he wrote. “He promised a ‘historic victory’ and security for generations, but in reality he suffered the most serious strategic failure Israel has ever known.”
“None of Netanyahu’s critics or rivals questioned the narrative that Iran posed an existential threat,” Alon Pincus, former Israeli ambassador and consul general in New York, told Al Jazeera of the consensus across Israel’s public and political sphere that Netanyahu was instrumental in shaping.
“This is why they are disappointed and why they are starting to blame Prime Minister Netanyahu,” he said, noting that the deadly attack on Lebanon the day after the ceasefire was an attempt to deflect attention from the US deal while garnering public support by viewing it as an attack on the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
But it remains to be seen how much that will reassure Israelis, he said.
constrained
While many in Israel may be frustrated by the ceasefire, they have little choice but to follow the lead of the United States and Trump.
Nevertheless, Prime Minister Netanyahu appeared to fall well short of voters’ expectations, insisting that the two countries were “always working together” and expressing public support for the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, despite appearing to be sidelined diplomatically.
“Any claims that there is a rift between us are completely false,” he said on Monday. “Quite the opposite is true. Anyone who has participated in these conversations and daily discussions with the president and his team can attest to that.”
Regardless of the realities of the relationship, it is unlikely that Israel will break with the United States while it leads negotiations with Iran, said Mitchell Barak, a political pollster and a top aide to Prime Minister Netanyahu since the 1990s.
“I have no idea that Prime Minister Netanyahu would attack Iran without President Trump’s green light,” he told Al Jazeera. “As I said before, Israel has no foreign policy. It handed it to the United States many years ago.”
Barak was dismissive of any political embarrassment that Netanyahu might experience as a result. “You can’t humiliate Prime Minister Netanyahu. Believe me, it’s impossible. I’m sure he always made the right decision at the right time.”
But while Prime Minister Netanyahu may not be personally humiliated as a result of the setback with Iran, Pincus warned that he will never escape political reversal.
“The victory over Iran, especially one that was seen as having the support of the United States, would have overshadowed the conversation surrounding the events of October 7, which many still associate with Mr. Pincus,” Pincus said of the Hamas-led attack on that day, which left 1,139 people dead and led to Israel’s genocidal war that killed more than 70,000 people and for whom Netanyahu is still accused of shirking responsibility. Palestinian.
“Obviously, things are not likely to go away the way they are, but as things stand – in the public’s mind – there will be two disasters associated with Prime Minister Netanyahu,” Pincus said.
