The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has been “fully implemented” and halted most economic activity in Tehran in just a day and a half, the commander of U.S. Central Command said on Wednesday.
“An estimated 90 percent of Iran’s economy is supported by international trade by sea. Less than 36 hours after the blockade was imposed, the U.S. military completely halted all economic trade to and from Iran by sea,” Admiral Brad Cooper said in a statement on social media.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) earlier announced that no ships had breached the blockade since it was implemented.
At the same time, there are reports that some commercial traffic is passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic point between Iran and Oman, through which 20% of world oil exports and 80% of Iranian oil exports pass.
But commercial traffic doesn’t automatically negate Cooper’s claims.
Two important points:
As announced by CENTCOM, the blockade targets all Iranian ports, including inside and outside the Strait of Hormuz, but not the strait itself. Traffic not related to Iran may cross. Blocking international waterways is illegal under maritime law.
In tightening the blockade, the U.S. military could intercept ships carrying Iran-related cargo tens of thousands of miles away. Commercial ships can be targeted on the high seas long after they leave the Channel.
Analysts say modern technology makes it possible to enforce lockdowns from a distance.
“(The United States) doesn’t need to send ships into the Persian Gulf to blockade Iran,” said former U.S. Navy Captain Karl Schuster.
He mentioned more than a dozen ships that CENTCOM said were on blockade missions. Most, if not all, of it is outside the Channel. They can carry advanced tracking and reconnaissance equipment linked to air and space systems.
And oil tankers won’t be able to go far, at least in the early stages of this blockade. A fully loaded tanker can travel less than 20 miles per hour. This is not much faster than the average bicycle rider’s speed.
The U.S. Navy also has the size and reach to track ships outside the Persian Gulf for weeks, anywhere in the world.
“The US blockade of Iranian ports has no clear geographic boundaries, and the US can intercept ships almost anywhere in international waters until they reach their final port,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Tuesday.
Earlier this year, the U.S. military seized a Venezuelan tanker in the Indian Ocean, thousands of miles from its port of departure, as the U.S. government ramped up pressure on Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro’s regime.
“We must be careful not to interpret it (the blockade) too literally as a physical blockage of the Channel itself,” said Bjorn Højgaard, chief executive of ship management company Anglo Eastern.
ISW also noted that the United States granted an exception to the blockade for humanitarian shipments, allowing an unspecified “grace period” for neutral vessels docked in Iranian ports to depart.
CENTCOM said in a statement Tuesday that six vessels that may have been trying to break through the blockade were stopped and turned around at the direction of the U.S. military.
Meanwhile, CENTCOM announced it was committing more than a dozen warships, more than 100 aircraft, and more than 10,000 personnel to enforce the blockade.
Mr. Schuster, a former Navy captain, gave a breakdown of the role of the ships that CENTCOM claimed were part of the blockade.
Aircraft carrier: Carries reconnaissance and fighter aircraft for combat air patrol. It also houses important command, control, communications, and intelligence centers.
Amphibious assault ship: Also transports surveillance and attack aircraft, a separate command, control, communications and intelligence center, and hundreds of Marines who can board commercial ships.
Amphibious Transport Docks: Transport more Marines, helicopters, and Osprey transports.
Dock Landing Ship: Comes with a heavy lift helicopter and more marines.
Destroyers: “They have sensors, speed and weapons that allow them to detect, intercept and, if necessary, board the violating vessel, seize it and take it elsewhere,” Schuster said.
Littoral combat ships: capable of mine countermeasures and tracking.
Shuster said the Iranian government’s response options are limited because many of its force components operate well away from the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian coast.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy’s small attack craft are designed to operate within the narrow confines of the Straits and the Persian Gulf, rather than the high seas of the Arabian Sea and beyond.
Iran likely retains some ballistic missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles despite weeks of airstrikes by the United States. However, even if there were more of them, none are known to have attacked US warships operating in the Arabian Sea.
US President Donald Trump said last month that Iran fired 101 missiles at the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, all of which were shot down.
