Although Iran has not yet confirmed its participation in this latest round of negotiations, Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to lead a U.S. negotiator team in Islamabad on Tuesday for talks with Iran aimed at ending the war.
Meanwhile, a fragile two-week ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday, but it is unclear whether it will be extended as tensions have escalated over the past two days.
The first round of US-Iran talks held in Islamabad on April 11 ended without any progress. Since then, the United States has imposed a naval blockade on all Iranian-linked vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran opened fire on ships attempting to pass through the vital shipping lane. Then, early Monday morning, the United States fired on and captured an Iranian vessel as it tried to pass through the narrow waterway.
The Iranian government calls the seizure of the vessel an “act of piracy” and warns of retaliation. They have refused to participate in the talks due to intimidation. President Trump reiterated his threat that if Iran does not accept a deal based on U.S. terms, he will order U.S. forces to blow up all bridges and power plants in Iran.
With the outcome of the talks and ceasefire uncertain, we analyze the latest information on both sides and four potential scenarios that could play out in the coming days.
What is the latest information on both sides?
The United States and Iran are both exchanging threats as the ceasefire is set to expire in the next few hours.
The two-week ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump on April 7th will expire at 8pm Washington DC time (midnight GMT, 3:30am Wednesday in Tehran and 5am in Islamabad) on Tuesday. However, President Trump has indicated in recent comments that he has already pushed back the deadline by a day.
Islamabad continues to prepare to hold multi-day talks, but there is no confirmation yet from Iranian officials whether they will attend.
The US president said he was confident Iran would negotiate, or else “we’ll be faced with problems like we’ve never seen before.”
President Trump confirmed in a post on Truth Social that a US delegation is scheduled to visit Islamabad on Tuesday. While accusing Iran of violating the ceasefire by firing on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump added: “We’re offering a very fair and reasonable deal. We hope you accept it. Because if we don’t, the United States will destroy every Iranian power plant and every bridge. No more, Mr. Nice Guy!”
Iran, on the other hand, insisted that negotiations would not take place under duress.
Mohammad Reza Mohseni Thani, a member of Iran’s parliament’s National Security Committee, cast further doubt on the prospects for talks with the United States.
In comments carried by Iran’s Mehr news agency, he said “negotiations are not acceptable” in the “current situation” and accused the United States of “demanding too much” and pursuing ulterior motives for domestic interests.
“Given the current situation, recent acts of aggression, and the history we have had with the United States in previous negotiations, the next round of negotiations is not what God wanted,” he said.
Ali Baez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group think tank, told Al Jazeera that the key hurdles before a second round of talks are “whether the United States is prepared to ease pressure enough to make diplomacy credible and whether Iran is prepared to constrain its influence enough to sustain talks.”
Scenario 1: Negotiations occur and a temporary agreement is reached.
Pakistan aims to get the US and Iran to agree to multi-day negotiations, a person close to the mediation effort told Al Jazeera.
On the U.S. side, Vance is expected to be joined by Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy and fellow real estate developer, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, the same team that participated in the first round of talks. If the Iranian side comes, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is expected to once again lead the delegation, which will also include Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Mediators in Islamabad aim to conclude a “memorandum of understanding” between the United States and Iran to buy time to reach a final agreement and extend the ceasefire.
“Success will not be a final agreement; it will be an interim agreement that extends negotiations, stabilizes the ceasefire, and creates a framework for nuclear measures in exchange for sanctions relief,” Baez said.
However, there are clear differences in the demands and expectations of both sides, including regarding Iran’s nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions against Iran and its frozen assets.
“There can be no agreement in Islamabad unless both countries change their positions,” said Anise Basili Tabrizi, an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House think tank.
Scenario 2: Negotiations end with no breakthrough, but ceasefire is extended
Tabrizi told Al Jazeera: “The gap is too wide to reach an agreement at this point, and compromises on both sides are needed for any meaningful progress to be made in the negotiations.”
“Unless the situation changes, it is unlikely that an agreement will be reached,” he said.
In recent days, President Trump has stepped up his push for Iran to halt all uranium enrichment and hand over its current stockpile of enriched uranium. Iran rejected these demands.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghai said on Monday that “the United States has not learned lessons from experience.” “And this never ends well.”
Still, Tabrizi said that even if no breakthrough was found in the second round of talks, the two sides could agree to “some kind of temporary extension of the ceasefire,” which would give diplomacy another chance.
Scenario 3: No talks but ceasefire extended
President Trump told Bloomberg News on Monday that he was considering a ceasefire until “Wednesday night Washington time,” and said it was “very unlikely” he would extend it if no deal is reached.
Still, analysts said it would not necessarily be a surprise if his last-minute post on the Truth Social platform was an extension of the ceasefire, even if Iran refused to attend the talks in Islamabad.
“It (will be) not a permanent ceasefire, but a fragile pause,” Baez said. “As long as pressure at sea and mutual accusations continue, the risk of miscalculation remains very high.”
“Without a diplomatic framework, it will only buy time rather than build stability,” he added.
Tabrizi agreed. But the war has already fundamentally changed the relationship between the United States and Iran, she said.
“President Trump is claiming that the change of government happened because they are dealing with different numbers,” Tabrizi said. “Iran probably no longer views the United States as an existential threat as it did before the fighting began.”
Scenario 4: Negotiations fail and ceasefire expires
President Trump’s repeated threats to resume bombing Iran in the absence of a deal also make a fourth scenario possible. That threat will be put to the test if Iranian negotiators do not travel to Islamabad for talks.
“Then a lot of bombs start going off,” Trump told PBS News on Monday, in response to a question about what he would do if the ceasefire expires. Trump added that Iran “was supposed to be included” in the negotiations. “Let’s see if it’s there. If they’re not there, that’s fine too,” he said.
Ghalibaf said Tuesday that President Trump is “in his imagination trying to turn this negotiating table into a table of surrender or justifying new warmongering.”
“We are preparing to reveal new cards on the battlefield,” he added, suggesting Tehran was preparing militarily for a resumption of fighting.
But if the ceasefire breaks down, Baez warned, “the next round is likely to get very ugly very quickly.” “The US is likely to target critical infrastructure in Iran, which will result in other parts of the region being torched as well.”
