Wolves have been relegated from the Premier League and Burnley will also be relegated, but which team will be relegated?
Leeds and Nottingham Forest are eight and five points adrift of the drop zone respectively, and it looks increasingly like a battle for survival between West Ham and Spurs.
Their London rivals remain just two points apart in 17th and 18th place, with both teams at increased risk of relegation with just five games left in the season.
Situation in favor of West Ham
Will West Ham look back on Monday’s goalless draw with Crystal Palace as a missed opportunity? If they had won, Spurs would have been adrift. Rather, the situation remains delicate.
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Jamie Carragher gives his verdict on teams facing relegation
“It’s going to be a fight until the end,” Nuno Espirito Santo told Sky Sports. The West Ham manager was keen to maintain a positive outlook, echoing Spurs boss Roberto De Zerbi, who said after the draw against Brighton that his team could win in a row with five games remaining.
On Monday Night Football, Jamie Carragher admitted Spurs have improved in their two games under the Italian manager.
“There’s no doubt that De Zerbi has had an impact on performance,” he said. “They played really well over the weekend and should have gotten more than a point from there.”
However, they lost their first game against Sunderland and drew with Brighton, extending Spurs’ winless record to 15 Premier League games. This is more than twice as many as any other team, and 19th-placed Burnley’s seven consecutive wins are the next best in the division.
Carragher says even Saturday’s clash with relegated Wolves is by no means certain to end this losing streak.
“They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, which is unbelievable,” he added. “I don’t think they’re going to lose the game, they could fail and of course they can, but I’ve seen other teams go there and I feel like it’s going to be difficult with Wolves the way they are.”
While De Zerbi and Spurs need to build momentum from the get-go, Nuno has already turned West Ham’s season around. The Hammers have lost just one of their last five Premier League games, but their progress goes back even further.
The turning point in fortunes came at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in January, when Callum Wilson scored in the 93rd minute to seal a 2-1 win. West Ham have since had the sixth best record in the division, winning only five and losing three of their 12 games, earning 1.6 points per game, up from 0.7 points per game previously.
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest beat Burnley 4-1, completing their longest unbeaten run of the season at five games.
Which side of the game is easier?
Based on the average league position of their remaining opponents, the Spurs have an easier game.
The average ranking of the remaining five opponents is 11th, with West Ham 9.4th and Nottingham Forest 8.4th.
However, West Ham have the benefit of playing three of their last five games at home, while Spurs have only had two. Their schedule includes daunting trips to fourth-placed Aston Villa and sixth-placed Chelsea.
Spurs are without a win in their last seven Premier League games played at Stamford Bridge. They have lost their last five games against Chelsea and their last four against Aston Villa.
West Ham’s schedule is also not straightforward. The away games will be against Brentford and Newcastle. They must also host Arsenal, who are chasing the title. Everton manager David Moyes will be keen to get a good result back at the London Stadium on Saturday.
Nottingham Forest will have the most difficult of the three matches based on their opponents’ league position. Like Spurs, they also have three away games, with Friday’s trip to Sunderland followed by games against Chelsea and Manchester United.
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But Opta says Forest could move to 36 points with Sunday’s decisive win against Burnley and reach safety with just one more win, given that the threshold for survival could be 38 points.
“If they win this game against Sunderland they will have 39 points and you will think, ‘They are not far away.
Spurs worsen with injuries
Spurs got a boost against Brighton as James Maddison returned to the team for the first time this season after suffering a knee injury. The 29-year-old was an unused substitute, but his arrival has raised hopes that he will be available before the end of the season.
Cristian Romero left the field in tears after being injured against Sunderland
However, injuries remain a big problem for Spurs, with Cristian Romero missing as a run-up in the loss to Sunderland, and Dejan Kulusevski, Mohamed Kudus, Wilson Odbert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies also missing.
Kulusevski is probably the team’s most important offensive player along with Madison, but he hasn’t played all season.
In contrast, West Ham’s health is mostly good. According to Premier Injuries, third-choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabianski is the only injured player, giving Nuno considerably more options than Spurs’ De Zerby.
What will be the verdict on Opta?
Spurs are now the favorites to be eliminated, according to Opta’s prediction table, which takes into account hundreds of thousands of data points and is based on 10,000 simulations.
Following the results of the latest round of the Premier League, Spurs now have a 58.3% chance of being relegated. This is significantly higher than West Ham’s 36.9% chance.
Nottingham Forest, who have a five-point cushion over 18th-placed Spurs, have just a 4.4 per cent chance of being relegated, while 15th-placed Leeds are considered almost safe with a 0.4 per cent chance of relegation and 39 points.
According to Opta’s points model, Spurs are expected to finish with 37 points, two points behind West Ham’s 39 points. De Zerbi cuts back on work to ensure a different outcome.
