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The risk-on rally that started last month as a rally in semiconductors and small-cap stocks is now in full swing with “animal spirits.” Bitcoin is on track to exceed $80,000 for the first time since February, and options trading volume for crypto-related stocks such as Strategy and Coinbase has exploded.
michael saylor’s strategy is up 9%, with call buying increasing across the options chain, with call volume outnumbering 5-to-1 in early trading. The most popular contract is the April 24th $180 strike call. With the stock trading at around $177, these near-at-the-money contracts suggest a 50-50 chance of profits expiring by Friday, a fairly tame way to bet on a stock that typically trades like a more volatile version of Bitcoin.
Strategy, 5 days
Someone is considering Wednesday’s 5% rally in crypto brokers coinbase is just the beginning. In a trade that raised many eyebrows, someone spent $120,000 on 1,000 $230 strike calls on COIN expiring this Friday. Those calls will pay off if the stock rises at least another 10% within the next three business days.
Coinbase, 5 days
The question is whether these animal spirits reach Elon Musk as well. tesla After tonight’s earnings.
Stock prices are down 10% year-over-year, even as the entire Nasdaq 100 index hits new highs.
Options markets are pricing in a 5.5% post-earnings move, but the realized stock price has been lower than expected in three of the past four quarters. In fact, the share price has changed less than 3% over the last two reporting periods, well below the implied change.
Tesla, 5th
Wednesday’s bullish action in more speculative and volatile stocks is further evidence that traders are moving past the Iran war as the primary threat. The CBOE Volatility Index has declined even though oil prices have increased by 4%, which hasn’t happened much lately.
