Welcome to The Radar. Nick Wright’s Sky Sports column combines data and opinion to highlight must-know stories from the top and bottom of the Premier League. this week:
🔴 Can Arsenal beat Man City?
◼️Newcastle’s blunt attack after Isaac
🔍 Players to watch this weekend
Encouragement to attack Arsenal?
Josep Guardiola has insisted that Manchester City are prioritizing points over goal difference in their title battle with Arsenal. “The only thing that matters is winning the game,” he said. However, with the only draw between the two teams being goal difference, there is no doubting its potential importance.
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Josep Guardiola says he ‘loved’ Declan Rice’s reaction to Arsenal’s defeat on Sunday
So the 1-0 win against Burnley, which put Manchester City in the lead, actually encouraged Arsenal. Mikel Arteta’s side also need to win above all else. But that may not be enough. Wednesday’s result could have been much worse for them.
Manager Guardiola pointed out that improving the goal difference was not just an effort on the offensive side. “It’s not just about one side, it’s about scoring and not conceding,” he told Sky Sports. But there is no doubt where the bigger question marks lie for Arsenal.
Can they raise the bar offensively?
Arteta may point out that they have scored just three fewer goals than Manchester City. The difference isn’t that big, partly because they were much better at returning from set-pieces. Arsenal scored 21 non-penalty set-piece goals, the most in the Premier League, compared to City’s eight.
Arteta will be hoping the set-piece supply line will restart in the coming weeks, having scored just one set-piece goal in four Premier League games since scoring twice from corners in the win over Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium in early March.
But the bigger room for improvement lies in open play, and in that regard he can feel encouraged by his team’s effort at the Etihad Stadium, despite the result. Arsenal had a higher total expected goals from open play than City, 1.32 to 0.98.
Kai Havertz had the best chance to score after a one-on-one chance was saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma. Then, in stoppage time, when Leandro Trossard had scored the equalizer, a brutal header went over the bar from a cross.
However, his return as Arsenal’s number nine was a huge factor in their development. Havertz played well as a focal point, holding the ball, getting Arsenal up the pitch, linking play and posing a considerable threat inside Manchester City’s box, even though he could have scored multiple goals by the end.
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Kai Havertz had a chance to equalize in stoppage time against Man City
His total of five shots in this match was the most by an opposing striker at the Etihad Stadium all season.
This was Havertz’s second start in the Premier League before the season, and coincided with the return of another Arsenal player who suffered an injury.
Martin Odegaard created more chances than anyone else in the game. He did not replace Eberechi Eze, but by joining his team he helped transform Arsenal’s attacking skill level.
Bukayo Saka has struggled to maintain consistency this season but could be key during run-in
The club must do everything in its power to get these players fit for the remaining five Premier League games, and Arteta says Bukayo Saka will be ready to join Havertz and Odegaard in Saturday’s game against Newcastle, which will be broadcast live on Sky Sports after his return from injury.
Remarkably, Havertz, Odegaard and Saka have not started a Premier League game together since the 5-1 win over Crystal Palace in December 2024, almost a year and a half ago.
Going back to Havertz’s arrival from Chelsea at the start of the previous season, the team’s performance with and without all three players highlights their overall importance, especially in open play.
The basic numbers show that Arsenal’s set-piece threat is consistent whether they are starting or not, with the Gunners averaging just 0.45 expected goals per game from set-pieces, regardless of whether they are playing set-pieces or not. But there is a gap in open play creativity.
Arsenal’s average expected goals from open play is 1.47 when Havertz, Odegaard and Saka all start, but only 1.11 when one or more of the three players are absent from the team.
Getting them on the pitch together is Arsenal’s biggest challenge, but it’s not a surefire solution. Saka has only scored two goals in his last 14 Premier League games due to injury. Odegaard has scored just one goal in his last 21 games.
Saturday, April 25th 5pm
5:30pm kickoff
Those players will need to rediscover their cutting edge, and the supporting cast will need to step up as well. Only three goals have been scored in the Premier League between Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli this season. Leandro Trossard has not played in any of the last 13 games.
Victor Gokeres has his limitations, but he ranks as Arsenal’s top scorer with 12 goals in the Premier League, with nine of his goals coming against lower-ranked teams, and he could be active in future matches against lower-ranked sides.
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Could Gabriel Martinelli come close to helping Arsenal win the title? Jamie Carragher explains on Monday Night Football
Judging by Martinelli’s comments to Sky Sports this week, increasing goal difference certainly appears to be on the minds of Arsenal’s players. “I think so,” he said.
“When you go to a game, you just want to win, but when the game is going and you’re winning, you think, ‘Let’s go score more goals,’ because you know it’s going to be a close game.”
Arsenal may still have the tools at the top.
newcastle dullness
Arsenal’s attack may be quietly giving them optimism, but Newcastle’s attack remains a headache for Eddie Howe.
The Magpies are averaging 1.41 goals per game, their lowest since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th.
They head into the Emirates Stadium in 14th place, which has worsened their Premier League standings after suffering a third consecutive defeat against Bournemouth last weekend. Their problems aren’t limited to the top end of the pitch, and last summer’s rebuilding of the attack seems to have made it worse.
Nick Woltemade and Ioan Wissa, who were signed for a total of £124 million, have not scored in 24 Premier League games, but Howe is considering using Denmark Under-21 international William Osla as his first-choice number nine before that happens.
Nick Woltemade hasn’t scored in the Premier League since December
Osla has shown potential by scoring in consecutive games. However, Alexander Isak topped the 20-goal mark in each of his final two seasons at Newcastle. This time, despite the huge investment in attack, the top scorer is Bruno Guimarães with nine goals.
Player Radar: Other Players to Watch
Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham last weekend was far from a typical game, but Mikel Damsgaard produced some eye-catching moments for the hosts and could cause problems for Manchester United on Monday Night Football.
Live Radar: What’s on Sky this weekend?
Sunderland will take on Nottingham Forest on Friday Night Football, which will be broadcast live on Sky Sports Premier League and Sky Sports Main Event from 7pm, ahead of an 8pm kick-off.
Arsenal and Newcastle will face off on Saturday Night Football, with Sky Sports Premier League and Sky Sports main event coverage beginning at 5pm, ahead of kick-off at 5.30pm.
Manchester United take on Brentford on Monday Night Football. Sky Sports Premier League and Sky Sports Main Event coverage begins from 6.30pm ahead of an 8pm kick-off time.
Read last week’s Radar column
Last week’s column was a prescient one, dissecting Arsenal’s technical problems and arguing that Kai Havertz should start against Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium.
