Business leaders are facing a new operational reality in which war, inflation, AI, and supply chain shocks are no longer exceptional events but part of the baseline.
CNBC spoke with more than 30 CEOs, business executives and industry leaders at the annual Converge Live event in Singapore last week.
Across sectors such as banking, energy, shipping, technology and manufacturing, a clear theme has emerged: uncertainty is no longer temporary. It’s a structural thing.
For DBS CEO Tan Hsu Hsiang, who runs Southeast Asia’s largest bank, the lesson is simple.
“If you’re a manager, manage with maximum flexibility, because you never know what tomorrow will bring,” she said. “Stress test, stress test, stress test, prepare for the worst-case scenario.”
1. A world full of shocks
Executives said the pace of crises is accelerating, from the pandemic to trade wars and now geopolitical conflicts.
“Long-term planning is becoming increasingly difficult,” said Stanley Zeto, chairman of apparel maker Lever Style.
Companies are increasingly abandoning traditional planning cycles. “We kind of threw the three-year plan and the five-year plan out the window,” said another executive.
Instead, leaders operate with permanent contingency plans in place.
“It’s no longer ‘just in time,’ it’s ‘just in case,'” said Thomas Knudsen, Asia managing director at jewelry giant Pandora.
This shift is being seen across industries, with supply chains being duplicated, inventory strategies rewritten, and logistics rerouted, often at higher costs.
2. Supply chains are strained and costs are rising.
Nowhere is the disruption more visible than in global trade.
Captain Rajalingam Subramaniam, CEO of shipping services company Fleet Management Limited, said “more than 2,000 ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf, affecting close to 20,000 to 30,000 seafarers.”
“In terms of supply chain costs, it’s going to be even higher in the long run,” he warned.
For manufacturers, that is already reflected in inflationary pressures.
“We produce clothing…and as long as transportation is disrupted, costs will go up,” Lever Style’s Zeto said. “It’s very inflationary because the prices of raw materials are going up.”
Businesses are adapting, but often at a cost. Lever Style, for example, prioritizes speed and flexibility and is rapidly increasing its use of air freight, despite its higher costs compared to ocean shipping.
“Adaptive agility is key,” Knudsen said.
Some executives were candid about where those costs would ultimately be passed on, Knudsen added: “Ultimately it’s all going to be passed on to the consumer.”
3. Inflation is testing consumers.
Executives serving mass-market consumers said demand hasn’t cracked, but behavior is changing.
Hans Patuwo, CEO of Indonesia-based super app GoTo, said the country’s wealthy shoppers remain resilient, while lower-income consumers are being helped by government support. But the middle class is changing.
“Now they’re willing to sacrifice variety. They’re willing to sacrifice speed for cheap,” he says.
Martha Sazon, CEO of GCash operator Mynt, said government subsidies and overseas remittances are helping to cushion the blow, and Filipino consumers are “very selective” in their purchases.
Asked to rate the resilience of ASEAN consumers, Sazon gave it a score of 7 out of 10. Patowo agreed. “Indonesia has a rich history of shocks and we have learned how to adapt and overcome them.”
4. AI is both an opportunity and a threat
Most CEOs and executives CNBC spoke to said they are approaching AI as a cost-cutting, growth-enhancing, cybersecurity risk, or existential threat to their business models.
In the software space, investors have warned that the traditional SaaS model is under pressure as AI agents reshape how companies buy and use software.
“The product is becoming less of a moat,” said Magnus Grimeland, founder and CEO of Antler, a global early-stage VC firm. “Those who don’t have that distribution mode and can’t reinvent themselves are going to really, really struggle.”
Daisy Cai, general partner at tech investment firm B Capital, said software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies may increasingly need to charge by outcome rather than by user, or “number of seats.” He said that while “traditional SaaS is based on a per-seat model,” with agents, the software “no longer charges per seat.”
Still, other executives CNBC spoke to emphasized that AI is not just about reducing headcount, but putting appropriate guardrails in place.
5. Cyber and trust keep CEOs energized
Cybersecurity has emerged as one of the most pressing concerns, especially as AI accelerates the speed and scale of attacks.
DBS’s Mr Tan said his team was “always red teaming” and taking a paranoid approach to cyber risk.
She pointed out that the ultimate differentiator in an AI-saturated world is trust. “Everyone has access to AI, everyone has technology, everyone has access to great talent, and knowledge is ubiquitous,” she said.
“My cyber director says, ‘Inside is outside,’ and just don’t believe in anything, don’t believe in anyone,” she said.
Brendan Laws, chief operating officer of Asia-based cybersecurity firm Black Panda, told Converge’s Defense and Cyber Panel that the chain of cyberattacks is accelerating as tools become more widely available.
“At the moment we’re generally a little slow in responding to attacks,” he said.
6. Energy security is back at the center
The oil price shock caused by the Iran war has also sharpened the debate over energy resilience and the transition to renewable resources.
TK Chan, CEO of Hong Kong-based power company CLP, argued that while the need to achieve energy security is accelerating investment in renewable energy, diversification to include gas, nuclear and carbon capture remains important.
Asad Razouk, CEO of Singapore-based renewable energy company Grin Energy, pushed back, saying renewable energy and storage were already winning global victories over more traditional forms in terms of cost and scale.
“We have added enough renewable energy to meet 100% of new electricity demand in 2025,” he said.
Both sides agree that the challenge is becoming more urgent as energy demand, particularly from AI and data centers, is rapidly increasing.
7. Leadership strategies are changing.
If there’s one conclusion shared across the industry, it’s that the world has not returned to pre-crisis norms.
Rather, businesses are adapting to a new reality defined by instability, fragmentation, and rapid technological change. For leaders, that means the challenge is no longer just dealing with the next shock. Convince your employees, customers, and investors that you can still adapt when the next product arrives.
Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau puts the biggest risk more broadly: a loss of faith in people’s ability to shape their future.
“What bothers me is the fact that so many people think they don’t matter anymore,” he says.
