The May 9 Victory Day parade on Moscow’s Red Square is a signature event for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Every year, Russia stages a show of military might, showcasing its most impressive weapons, including the latest generation of missiles and tanks.
However, this year’s parade is expected to be a more subdued affair.
Late on Tuesday, Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced that the parade would include military academy units and military columns marching on foot. However, breaking with recent precedent, the Ministry of Defense said that no military equipment would pass through Lenin’s grave this year.
“Due to the current operational situation, students of the Suvorov Military School and Nakhimov Naval Academy, cadet units and columns of military equipment will not participate in this year’s military parade,” the statement said.
It doesn’t take much knowledge of Kremlinology to guess what “current operational situation” means here. Contrary to claims from Moscow’s top brass, the Russian military appears to be losing some ground in Ukraine. Ukraine’s attacks have damaged Russia’s critical oil and gas infrastructure. Drone attacks by Kiev have previously disrupted life in the Russian capital.
Asked on Wednesday about plans for the parade and whether the front lines needed equipment, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov took a slightly different view of the situation, saying Moscow faced a “terrorist threat” from Kiev.
“We are talking about the operational situation,” he said. “The Kiev regime, which is getting weaker by the day on the battlefield, has now launched a full-scale terrorist attack. Therefore, against the background of this terrorist threat, of course, all measures are being taken to minimize the danger. There will be a parade, but we must not forget that last year it was a commemorative parade. It is a large-scale parade, the kind that should be held on an important day. This day is not a commemorative day, but the parade will take place, albeit on a reduced scale” format. ”
Russia has scaled back its Victory Day parades in the years since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Traditional military aircraft flybys have been canceled in 2022 and 2023. The 2024 parade featured only one World War II-era T-34 tank.
But as Peskov pointed out, last year’s Victory Day parade, which commemorated the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany, was a gala-like event. Putin presided over a parade featuring hardware such as the Gueran 2, Russia’s version of Iran’s Shahid drone, and hosted friendly leaders including Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense has announced that next month’s parade will include traditional highlights. Aerobatic teams will fly over Red Square, and Su-25 ground attack aircraft will paint the Russian tricolor in the Moscow sky. But the scaled-down parade marks a turning point for Putin.
Discontent has surfaced in Russia in recent weeks after a wave of internet outages made life in the Russian capital and other regions inconvenient. The internet outage, which Russian authorities say was necessary for security reasons, sparked rare public criticism of the country’s leadership.
Repeated attacks by Ukraine on the Tuapse refinery on Russia’s Black Sea coast have also highlighted Moscow’s economic vulnerability. Footage of the ongoing environmental disaster also highlighted what some see as a slow response by authorities.
Other economic alarm bells are also ringing in the Kremlin. On Tuesday, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said Russia was facing an unprecedented labor shortage.
“Never in the history of modern Russia have we experienced such a labor shortage,” she said, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti. “We’ve never seen anything like this before, and it’s impacting the overall economic landscape.”
Labor shortages in Russia are not surprising. The partial military mobilization announced in September 2022 triggered a wave of immigration in the country and caused a severe brain drain. And Russia is struggling to replenish its military amid dire casualties on the Ukrainian front.
In 2008, President Putin explained why Russia had reinstated a display of tanks and missiles on Red Square, the first major weapons display since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
“This is not like wielding a sword. We are not threatening anyone, nor do we intend to, nor are we forcing anyone to do anything. We have enough of everything,” he said. “This shows that our defense capabilities are growing. We can protect our people, our people, our nation and our wealth.”
Whether Russian troops will be able to defend the capital amid a long and bloody war with Ukraine currently appears to be an open question.
