Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney took office last year amid a series of aggressive actions by his southern neighbor. Recently inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian exports and make the U.S. neighbor the nation’s 51st state.
The move was particularly egregious because Canada not only has deep trade and security ties with the United States, sending nearly 80 per cent of its exports to that market, but also often aligns itself with geopolitical and strategic moves.
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All of that was thrown out the window when Trump took office, and under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Canada was one of the first countries Trump imposed tariffs on.
After a year of dealing with a volatile and unpredictable U.S. president, experts have praised Mr. Carney for his “strong and resolute stance” not only against Mr. Trump’s threats but also against his domestic critics.
“What was most remarkable last year was both the dodging of a bullet and the clever political maneuvering to avoid a trade and investment deal with the United States like so many other countries,” said Brett House, a senior fellow at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of International Affairs and Public Policy.
House told Al Jazeera: “The president’s promises have been completely worthless and his biggest accomplishment in the first year has been to stand strong and firm in the face of internal critics.”
Indeed, Mr. Carney has used Mr. Trump’s attacks on allies and others to refocus Canada’s foreign policy and place in the world.
At a time when the U.S. is no longer a bastion of the rules-based order and changes in Washington have created “deep rifts,” “Mr. Carney has sought to develop at home and diversify abroad, with dependence on Ottawa and long ties a source of weakness,” said Bina Najibullah, vice president of the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada.
In Ottawa, “and he’s doing this with a speed, scale and ambition we haven’t seen in recent years,” Najibullah said.
“Collapse” of world order
Part of that stance was made clear in January when Carney said in a speech at Davos that there was a “break” in the global rules-based order and that China, including Canada, needed to stand up strategically to address geopolitical tensions.
But that was clear even before Davos, when he reached out to historically important trading partners with whom political tensions had frozen relations under his predecessor, Prime Minister Trudeau.
For example, Prime Minister Carney invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a G7 meeting in Canada to begin repairing relations with New Delhi, which had been deeply frozen since 2023 when Prime Minister Trudeau alleged that India was involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist activist on Canadian soil.
Carney also recalibrated relations between Canada and China, which had been strained since Canadian authorities arrested a key executive from Chinese telecommunications company Huawei while traveling at Vancouver International Airport in December 2018. China has detained two Canadians in retaliation for the arrest of Meng Wanzhou at the request of US authorities.
Mr. Carney has also deepened ties with countries such as Japan, South Korea and Australia, ensuring alignment on security and economic issues and bringing Canada closer to Europe, Najibulla said.
domestic push
In the run-up to last year’s election, Mr. Carney “made every effort to position himself as a centrist, a moderate, and distance himself from the image of Justin Trudeau,” said Sanjay Jhelum, chair of political science at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, Canada.
“He doesn’t show much interest in discussing anything other than economics, international relations, and trade, and when asked, he avoids them and tries to steer the conversation back to what he believes is the true purpose. Or maybe that’s his political strategy, or both.”
Mr. Jerram said Mr. Carney will be judged on a realist scale because, with his pragmatic nature, “Mr. Carney sees the world and the economy as it is, not as we would like it to be,” and referred to criticism that Mr. Carney overlooks concerns related to political interference and human rights in dealings with foreign partners.
“Canadians have supported that stance so far,” Jerram added.
In fact, Carney’s approval ratings are rising. A March Ipsos poll for Global News found that 58 per cent of Canadians support him, up 10 per cent from a year ago, while 33 per cent disapprove.
While there is significant movement on paper to remove federal barriers to promote domestic business and trade, there are also concerns about pursuing certain policies. For example, while the Major Projects Bill is intended to fast-track large infrastructure projects, critics are concerned that it undermines the importance of consultation, particularly with indigenous communities whose lands these projects may pass through.
“Mr. Carney recognizes that we need more infrastructure to diversify trade,” said Najibulla of the Asia Pacific Foundation.
Now in its second year, Carney’s main challenge is whether he can deliver on his first year’s announcements.
One of his biggest challenges this year will be successfully finalizing a review of the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade agreement known as USMCA, which begins July 1 and helps protect Canadian exports from U.S. tariffs.
“The United States has indicated that the success of the review may depend on Canada aligning its external tariffs with U.S. tariffs, but that is inconsistent with Canada’s efforts,” the University of Toronto House of Commons said, especially as Canada has agreements with China on electric vehicles and agriculture.
Najibullah added: “2026 will be more difficult because implementation and delivery will be critical, especially against the power dynamics of the United States and Canada.”
