Quietly take stock of Google’s parent company alphabet It has surpassed $5 trillion and is on pace to overtake the AI leader. Nvidia As the world’s most valuable company.
And according to option prices, that could happen sooner or later.
Alphabet’s stock rally after Thursday’s 10% jump brought the company’s one-year gain to 140% and pushed its market cap to more than $4.6 trillion. The company reported higher-than-analyst estimates on Wednesday, pushing Google Cloud’s revenue to more than $20 billion.
At the same time, the world’s largest company, AI kingpin Nvidia, which currently trades with a market capitalization of less than $4.9 trillion, has fallen more than 6% in two days following a Wall Street Journal report that its business partner OpenAI missed internal revenue and growth estimates.
If Nvidia doesn’t recover after its May 20 report, and the stock has fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, options markets say Alphabet will likely trade as the world’s largest company as early as May 15.
The calculation is as follows: For Alphabet to reach Nvidia’s current market capitalization, the stock would need to rise another 4% or so, to about $401 per share.
Options traders believe there is about a 53% chance of reaching that level sometime between now and May 15, based on the premiums paid on call contracts before and after that strike.
According to ThinkOrSwim data, there is about a 30% chance that Alphabet will close just above $400 on Friday, May 22nd, after NVIDIA’s gain reached about 30%.
The last time Alphabet was the world’s most valuable company was in 2016, when it briefly knocked Apple out of the top spot.
