U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Tuesday that Operation Epic Fury, the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran that began on February 28 and sparked a regional conflict, has ended because it achieved its objectives. Rubio said Washington now wants a “path of peace.”
On the same day, US President Donald Trump announced that he had suspended Project Freedom, a US military operation launched the day before to escort ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz.
So does this mean the US-Israel war against Iran is over?
What did Rubio say about Operation Epic Fury?
At a White House press conference on Tuesday, Rubio told reporters that “Operation Epic Fury” has ended.
“Operation Epic Fury is over. We achieved our objectives,” Rubio said.
“We are not advocating another situation. We want a path to peace. What the president wants is a deal,” he said, referring to Pakistan’s efforts to arrange direct talks between Iran and the United States.
The first round, held in Islamabad last month, ended without a resolution. Since then, both sides have submitted new proposals.
“President Trump’s sudden launch of Operation Freedom to divert ships from the Strait of Hormuz, along with his repeated and intermittent talks with Iran, are causing unwelcome enthusiasm in the Gulf,” Burk Ozcelik, a senior researcher on Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based think tank, told Al Jazeera.
“It also reflects a herculean and almost frantic diplomatic maneuver aimed at extracting deep concessions from Tehran on the nuclear issue, sticking to commitments that go beyond previous terms, and persuading the United States to lift the Iranian port blockade and lift sanctions relief, thereby effectively ending the war.”
Foreign Minister Ozcelik explained that Iran, on the other hand, is seeking assurances that this will end the war, not just a pause.
What did President Trump say about Project Freedom?
The same day, President Trump told reporters that Project Freedom was suspended at the “request” of Pakistan and other countries and “the fact that we have made significant progress toward a full and final agreement” with Iranian representatives.
Project Freedom is a U.S. military operation to protect ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, announced the day before by President Trump. This appeared to signal a direct challenge by Iran to the closure of the strategic waterway, through which 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are transported in peacetime. Since the US and Israeli attacks on Iran began, Iran has threatened to attack ships in the strait and blocked the strait. Subsequently, the United States announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports, further escalating tensions around the strait.
After President Trump announced Project Freedom, Iran announced it would fire on any ship that tried to use the strait without permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), raising fears of a return to war. His announcement sparked a war of words between the United States and Iran, with claims and counterclaims about the attacks continuing throughout the day.
First, Iran’s Fars Agency claimed that it had used a drone to attack a U.S. warship that ignored orders to return from the Strait of Hormuz. However, US Central Command (CENTCOM) denied attacking US ships and claimed to have sunk at least six IRGC ships. Iran denied it. Subsequently, the Iranian government released a new map that expanded its claim to control the strait into UAE territorial waters, raising concerns of a new regional conflict.
The UAE accused Iran of attacking the port of Fujairah, where a vital oil pipeline is to be built, and causing a fire at an oil refinery.
President Trump said the U.S. operation was suspended on Tuesday.
“While the (US) blockade will remain in full force and effect, we have agreed to suspend Project Freedom (ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz) for a short period to see if an agreement can be finalized and signed,” he wrote on his Truth social platform.
Iran did not immediately react to this.
Shahram Akbarzadeh, a professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian politics at Australia’s Deakin University, told Al Jazeera that while it is difficult to determine exactly why President Trump suspended Project Freedom, the suspension was in response to growing anti-war sentiment in the United States.
“At the same time, President Trump may be losing patience for war. He says there is time to prolong the war,” Akbarzadeh said.
“But the reality is that President Trump has a short attention span and needs to secure a victory soon. Pausing Project Freedom will increase the pace of diplomacy and bring the United States and Iran closer to an agreement that President Trump will consider a victory.”
Will this end the war with Iran?
Not exactly. Akbarzadeh said the suspension of Project Freedom could be “the beginning of the end of the war.”
“If President Trump gives a clear signal that diplomacy is green because we know Iran is desperate for an end, there is little chance that Iran will resume attacks on the U.S. Navy.”
But, he added, “the problem is that we have been here before. Opportunities have been squandered because Israel insisted it could get a better deal with the United States, or because Trump misread the situation and hoped the military option would yield more concessions.”
What happens next?
Although this is difficult to predict, Akbarzadeh said neither side seems to want a return to full-scale war and both sides are likely to prioritize a diplomatic solution.
Still, he added, “neither can be considered losers.” “They feel they need to maintain their public image for a domestic audience. This complicates negotiations and reaching an agreement.”
Ozcelik said what happens next “will depend on what Tehran’s divided leadership promises regarding the nuclear file.”
“Although it refuses to include curbs on Iran’s nuclear program in the talks, this type of stance is intended to reassure domestic hardliners and Iranian nationalists who are upset by U.S. and Israeli attacks and view the nuclear issue from a nationalist and sovereign rights perspective.”
She predicted that the United Nations could soon issue formal condemnation of Iran for its unilateral blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
“But the real pressure, which is growing by the day, is economic. The closure of the strait is imposing a severe price on Iran’s prospects for economic recovery,” she said.
“Despite the rhetoric about resilience and survival, there is no denying that the remaining Iranian leadership is concerned about the cost of war. The possibility of new military attacks on Iran’s critical infrastructure, and the destabilizing effects it will inevitably have, may ultimately force Tehran’s hand,” Ozchelik concluded.
