Demonstrators protesting the redrawing of Florida’s congressional map hold placards outside the Florida State Capitol on Tuesday, April 28, 2026 in Tallahassee, Florida, United States.
Malcolm Jackson Bloomberg | Getty Images
Tennessee’s Republican governor, Bill Lee, on Thursday signed a just-approved bill to eliminate the state’s only Democratic-held congressional seat. This is the latest move in the race to redistrict the U.S. House of Representatives ahead of the 2026 midterm elections following a pivotal Supreme Court ruling.
The map is “insane,” said Rep. Steve Cohen, a Memphis Democrat who holds the seat Republicans are targeting. In a post to
“President Trump knows he has to manipulate the game to maintain his majority in November,” Cohen, who previously called the effort a “power grab,” posted on X after the law was signed. “And the Tennessee Republican Party was happy to go along with it.” He also threatened to sue.
Power grabs or not, redrawn maps like Tennessee’s could be key to maintaining a majority in the House. And in a redistricting race to the bottom, neither party seems willing to let up on the gas.
The Supreme Court’s April 29 decision weakening parts of the Louisiana v. Calais voting rights law invalidated the majority-black Democratic district in Louisiana and paved the way for states across the South to redraw their own congressional maps. In addition to Louisiana and Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina have already taken such steps.
State Sen. London Lamar, D-Tennessee, holds a copy of Tennessee’s proposed congressional map during a special legislative session at the Tennessee State Capitol on Wednesday, May 6, 2026 in Nashville, Tennessee, USA.
Madison Thorne | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The Republican Party faces a difficult situation in maintaining its majority as it struggles under the weight of President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings, the continued war with Iran, and soaring gasoline prices. But they have struck a more optimistic tone lately.
One Republican operative spoke candidly on condition of anonymity. “When you have a three-seat majority, every seat counts.”
“There is certainly a path forward, and I think with what happened (the Calais decision) that path becomes even brighter for us,” the operative said.
Will Democrats still be able to win a House majority?
Despite the Supreme Court ruling and other early redistricting efforts, such as in Texas and Florida, where Republicans could each pick up a few seats, Democrats are widely seen as the favorites to win a House majority later this year.
Voting Hub, an independent political media outlet that provides election analysis, put an 85% chance of a Democratic victory in the House of Representatives in its forecast released on May 4, after the Curry decision.
And Democrats are projecting confidence despite the Supreme Court defeat.
“Republicans, no matter how hard they try, will not be able to carve out an artificial majority in 2026. Voters will have the final say in November,” Beto Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement.
However, the calculations can be difficult.
Republicans had already narrowly defeated Democrats in redistricting battles. Before the Curry decision, an analysis by the nonprofit organization Issue One predicted that Republicans would gain up to 13 seats through partisan gerrymandering in Texas, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, and Florida. According to Issue One, Democrats could pick up 10 votes, but that depends on whether they can sustain a new map passed in Virginia that is the subject of a legal challenge in the state Supreme Court.
After Calais, Republicans could add at least five seats, giving them an edge between eight and 12 seats, Issue 1 noted. If successful, these redrawn maps have the potential to disenfranchise minority voters, said Michael McNulty, policy director at Issue One.
“I’m very concerned that it essentially just weakens the voice of voters of color and gives politicians the green light,” McNulty said. “And that just inflames what was already a gerrymander war. Instead of politicians working so hard to get voters to vote, they can basically redraw the maps to protect themselves.”
The 2028 election cycle could see more states target seats previously protected by parts of the repealed voting rights law, including Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Texas, according to Issue One.
An official holds a diagram showing redistricting efforts in North Carolina as members of Congress speak during a press conference outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on September 18, 2025.
Win McNamee | Getty Images
And Republicans are urging states to move forward.
“States need to be proactive and act quickly on redistricting,” said David McIntosh, president of the Trump-aligned Club for Growth. The group’s campaign arm invested $2 million in an Indiana Senate race to unseat a Republican group that blocked President Trump’s redistricting push in the state.
“Indiana has sent a signal that Republican primary voters want their legislators to be proactive and get the job done. Republicans need to be willing to fight,” McIntosh said.
President Trump promotes redistricting
Omar Noureldin, senior vice president of policy and litigation at the nonprofit group Common Cause, said the Supreme Court’s decision does not direct states to take action against the districts in question.
But some Republicans, including President Trump, interpret this as a mandate.
On Sunday, President Trump posted on Truth Social, “We cannot allow an election to be held in violation of the Constitution just because of the ‘convenience’ of the state legislature. If we have to vote twice, so be it,” Trump posted on Truth Social, alluding to the fact that the House election in Louisiana, where early voting had already begun, was canceled as a result of the decision.
“We should demand that our state legislatures do what the Supreme Court says they should do. That’s more important than administrative expediency. The byproduct of that is that Republicans will pick up more than 20 House seats in the upcoming midterm elections!” Trump said.
Outside of political circles, there is little evidence that these efforts are popular. A recent YouGov poll found that 71% of Americans said partisan gerrymandering should not be allowed, but only 7% said they supported the practice. Sixty-nine percent of Republicans say partisan gerrymandering should not be allowed, compared to 74% of Democrats.
But major changes to curb partisan gerrymandering are unlikely in the short term. Congress could pass legislation that would ban mid-decade redistricting or require the creation of an independent redistricting commission. Democrats have made such proposals a priority in recent years. But both parties have little incentive to act in the current political climate.
Meanwhile, Nureruddin called current efforts to redistrict across the south a “power grab.”
“They’re drawing districts in a way that allows them to choose their voters rather than the other way around,” he said.
