And there were two. It looks like either West Ham or Tottenham will be the last team to be relegated from the Premier League this season, with just three games left, but their next games – both broadcast on Sky Sports – could be decisive in the battle for relegation.
Spurs’ winning streak under Roberto De Zerbi has reversed the narrative and lifted them out of the bottom three, where West Ham currently sit, but by the time Tottenham play Leeds on Monday night Spurs could be back in the drop zone.
The Hammers, who currently sit one point behind Spurs, must beat title favorites Arsenal, who have recently turned a corner themselves, if they are to dethrone their rivals, but a repeat of last weekend’s defeat to Brentford could prove fatal.
Mathematically nothing can be decided in this next game, but if Spurs open a four-goal lead, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side will have little room for maneuver and will have to rely on their rivals’ two mistakes in the last two games.
What does Opta’s supercomputer say?
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Highlights of the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur.
West Ham’s 3-0 defeat at Brentford on Saturday saw a huge swing in their relegation odds after the final game, but the following day Spurs put in their most convincing performance of 2026 with a 2-1 win over Aston Villa and moved out of the bottom three.
Opta’s supercomputer currently predicts West Ham have a more than 80% chance of being eliminated, while Spurs have a 19.3% chance, which is some improvement from a week ago.
In early May, before the win at Villa, Spurs were thought to have a 59% chance of being relegated, but that probability has fallen and West Ham have gone sharply in the opposite direction. Since then, their chances of being eliminated have more than doubled.
Bookmakers also believe West Ham are favorites heading into this weekend’s fixtures. The Hammers have a 1/4 chance of being relegated, while Spurs have a 3/1 chance of being relegated.
There is still a chance that Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace or Leeds United could fall back into the bottom three. Opta currently predicts there is less than a 1% chance of the share price falling.
Mathematically, 13th place Newcastle could also be relegated, but for that to happen Newcastle would need to lose all their games, West Ham would have to win all their games, and have a goal difference of 17.
Most bookmakers have relegation odds for Leeds and Forest at 125/1, but Palace are at 150/1, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a bookmaker offering odds for Newcastle.
What does the form tell us?
This has been one of the most intense Premier League relegation battles in the last 20 years, making it extremely difficult to predict what will happen in the final weeks of the season.
Their recent bottom-place finish is more like a title fight than a relegation scrap.
Despite the loss to Brentford, West Ham remain sixth in the Premier League since January 17, when they beat Spurs 1-0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with Nottingham Forest close behind.
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Watch for free: Highlights of the Premier League match between Brentford and West Ham.
Spurs have improved in recent times thanks to De Zerbi’s arrival, finishing in the top half of the league in the four games he has managed, with seven points total, the same as West Ham in that period.
This form table somewhat challenges the idea that West Ham will have a much tougher fixture in their next game.
At Leeds, Spurs have played their last four games against a team in second place in the Premier League and their last six against a team in fourth place, with Daniel Farke’s side remaining unbeaten in that period.
Two of Leeds’ wins during this period came against relegated sides Burnley and Wolves, but they both came through comfortably to secure their first big win at Old Trafford since 1981 against third-placed Manchester United. They should not be underestimated.
Arsenal sit below Leeds in the table after the last four games, along with Spurs and West Ham. They face a tougher schedule and appear to have overcome a temporary stumble, which shows the Gunners are here to stay.
West Ham have recently been in good form to deny Arsenal the title, drawing 2-2 at the London Stadium in 2023 after a missed penalty by Bukayo Saka, and losing 1-0 to the Gunners at the Emirates Stadium in February 2025.
Who has the toughest matches?
Only Crystal Palace and Brentford are considered by Opta to have a harder schedule than West Ham when it comes to Premier League run-ins, and their next match will be the hardest of them all.
It’s never a good time to face the leaders of the Premier League, but it seems like the worst time to be facing Arsenal, who are just three wins away from ending their drought, at a crucial moment in a season where their first title in more than 20 years is on the line.
Especially given the strength of Mikel Arteta’s side, who have just beaten Atletico Madrid to reach the Champions League final for the first time in 20 years, and the win against Fulham marked a return to the formidable form that got them here.
West Ham, who are effectively two points behind Spurs on goal difference, will travel to Newcastle and then host Leeds at the London Stadium on the final day.
By comparison, Spurs are rated as having the eighth-easiest schedule in the Premier League, with Monday’s game against Leeds followed by a trip to struggling Chelsea, who have lost their last six games in the competition, and a home game against Everton.
How many points do you need to survive?
The Opta supercomputer predicts that 40 points will be enough to ensure they remain in the Premier League. In each of the past nine Premier League seasons, teams who finished with 36 points or more have avoided relegation, and that’s exactly the case for West Ham.
Last season, 26 points would have been enough to keep them in the league, as the bottom three teams who performed very poorly – Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton – quickly returned to the Championship.
Spurs exploited this trio’s weaknesses to focus on winning the Europa League, but ended up in a dismal 17th place with 38 points, 13 points behind Leicester in 18th place.
But Tottenham do not have that luxury this season as they face the real possibility of being relegated to English football’s second tier for the first time since 1977.
When the Premier League was a 20-team system, only three teams were relegated with more than 40 points: Sunderland (1996/97), Bolton (1997/98) and West Ham (2002/03), with the latter holding the record for the most relegated teams with 42 points.
Watch West Ham v Arsenal on Sunday live on Sky Sports Premier League from 4pm. Kickoff 4:30pm.
Sunday, May 10th 4pm
4:30pm kickoff
Watch Tottenham v Leeds live on Sky Sports Premier League from 6.30pm on Monday. Kickoff at 8pm.
Monday, May 11th 6:30pm
Kickoff at 8pm
