US President Donald Trump sits at a table monitoring military operations during Operation Epic Fury against Iran, with the US flag visible in the background, March 2, 2026 in Washington, US.
White House via X | Anadolu | Getty Images
Hello, my name is Hui Jie from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.
Less than 24 hours after I wrote that peace might be on the way, Washington and Tehran were once again exchanging gunfire. Predicting the course of this conflict is beginning to feel like a game of missile roulette.
Well, the question is simple. Who would shoot first?
What you need to know today
The stop-start nature of the Iran war means that any attempt to predict the trajectory of the conflict usually ends in failure.
On Thursday, the United States and Iran opened fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with each side accusing the other of launching the attack.
Adding to this escalation, US President Donald Trump insisted that the ceasefire between the US and Tehran remained in place, even as he claimed that the US had “completely destroyed” the Iranians involved in the exchange.
Meanwhile, Iran announced that U.S. forces targeted an Iranian tanker sailing into the strait from coastal waters.
Ceasefire or not, new tensions continue to disrupt one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Shell CEO Wael Sawan has warned investors that the oil market is facing a 1 billion barrel deficit and that the longer the conflict drags on, the worse the situation will become.
Oil prices fell on Thursday but rebounded in early Friday trading in Asian markets. International benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose 2.29% to $102.35 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures rose 2.09% to $96.79 per barrel.
Other products are also gaining attention again. Market sources told CNBC that if a peace deal between the US and Iran is reached, the rally in gold and silver prices at the beginning of the year could regain its momentum.
The market has also retreated from its recent frenzy. of S&P500 It fell on Thursday; AmazonThe same goes for semiconductor stocks such as . broadcom and micron technology.
Investors’ attitude worsened too. cloudflarethe stock price fell 18% after the company announced plans to cut a fifth of its workforce.
Cloudflare said agent-based artificial intelligence has “fundamentally changed” the company’s work, adding that some roles “are not the roles of the future.”
Ceasefire or not, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly looking less like diplomacy and more like a bar brawl where no one remembers who threw the first punch. Unfortunately, the financial market remembers who paid for the broken furniture.
And finally…
France is a fan favorite at the FIFA World Cup, but AI is backing another country in search of glory, says BofA
France has emerged as fan favorites for this year’s FIFA World Cup in North America, according to a Bank of America survey.
Around 40% of fans surveyed by BofA are betting on Les Bleus to win the World Cup this summer, with France international and Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappé expected to win the Golden Boot as the tournament’s top scorer.
However, Microsoft’s artificial intelligence tool Copilot supports another champion, saying Spain could lift the trophy as well.
