Monday, April 20, 2026, at the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington, DC.
Graham Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Two court rulings in the past two weeks have increased the chances that Democrats will flip the House majority in November, traders at prediction market platform Calsi said.
The party’s chance of winning a majority in the House of Representatives has fallen from 85.3% on April 28 to 75%.
On April 29, the Supreme Court ruled in Louisiana v. Calais that Louisiana’s majority-black congressional districts are invalid, limiting the range of races that can be considered when drawing congressional maps and weakening parts of the Voting Rights Act.
This district, like many other black-majority Congressional districts across the South, is represented by Democrats. As Louisiana moves to redraw its maps, the state is likely to send one less Democratic representative.
Other states are also rushing to redraw their maps in response to the decision. Tennessee last week approved a map that changes the boundaries of a majority-black district in Memphis, jeopardizing Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen’s re-election. Alabama and South Carolina are also considering redrawing their maps, potentially putting up to three Democratic incumbents at risk.
Democrats suffered another blow Friday when the Virginia Supreme Court threw out a referendum to change the congressional map that voters narrowly passed in April, potentially sending up to four additional Democrats to Congress. The decision leaves Virginia’s current congressional districts in place for the 2026 election, limiting the number of seats Democrats can hope to win in the state as they seek to win a House majority.
After Virginia’s referendum, Florida moved to redistrict in hopes of giving Republicans four more seats. The proposal was signed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Calais.
Democrats remain likely to win a majority in the House, but those odds are at their lowest level since late December.
The redistricting battle comes as primary election season is in full swing. West Virginia and Nebraska go to the polls on Tuesday, but Carsi traders are backing John Kavanaugh as the Democratic candidate for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, a seat the party needs to win to flip the House majority. Carsi traders believe Brinker Harding, backed by President Donald Trump, is certain to be the Republican nominee.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
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