President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping will add another item to the long list of mutual interests and potential disagreements between the United States and China: war with Iran.
U.S. officials have suggested China should play a bigger role in encouraging Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts say China will likely demand U.S. concessions over Taiwan if it is to help resolve the crisis.
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And it is unlikely that Iran will be at the top of the agenda at any meeting between President Trump and Xi.
“Iran is not really a central issue for either party to this summit,” said Christopher Hulin, associate professor of government and Asian studies at Bowdoin College.
Hurlin said that although the meeting was postponed earlier this year because of the war, Taiwan remains a top priority for China and that President Trump is likely to encourage China to increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans.
Since China is a major importer of Iranian and Middle Eastern oil, Iran’s economy could be strained by the disruption caused by Tehran’s blockade of Hormuz and the US naval siege of Iran.
Still, Hulin said the Chinese government is reluctant to get involved in the crisis.
“When it comes to Iran, China seems to be positioning itself as someone who might be helpful in this regard,” he said.
“They recently hosted Iran’s foreign minister, but it appears they are waiting for this visit to refrain from putting pressure on Iran to end the conflict.”
President Trump: ‘I’ve been punished’
Although the Chinese government has amassed oil reserves that are helping it weather global energy shortages, such resources are finite, which is why China has an interest in opening the strait.
At the same time, if Beijing’s main strategic competitor, the United States, is weakened globally by the Iran conflict, the Iran conflict will increasingly look to many observers as a war that cannot be won.
The Economist magazine summed up the move on its cover last month, featuring a photo of Mr. Xi staring at Mr. Trump with the words, “Never interfere when your enemy is making a mistake,” attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.
Inderjeet Parmar, a professor of international politics at City St. George’s, University of London, said Trump was heading toward China “chastised” by the shortcomings of the Iran war.
“So Trump is going to go there in a bit of a situation,” Palmer told Al Jazeera.
“Opening the Strait of Hormuz requires China’s support. China needs the Strait of Hormuz open for its own reasons, including oil and energy from Iran. At the same time, China can use this as leverage regarding Taiwan.”
Before departing for China on Tuesday, President Trump said he did not need Mr. Xi’s help on Iran, saying the conflict was “fairly under control.”
But the war appears to be hampering the Republican president’s domestic and global standing as U.S. gas prices soar, fueling inflation, diplomacy stalls and Trump’s popularity plummets.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week called on China to intervene in the crisis.
“The strait was closed due to an attack from Iran. We are trying to reopen it. Therefore, I would strongly encourage China to join us in supporting this international operation,” Bessent said.
He also emphasized that China is the largest importer of Iranian oil and accused Beijing of “financing the largest state sponsor of terrorism,” referring to Tehran.
“Let’s see them step up their diplomacy and force Iran to open the strait,” he said.
china’s plan
William Yang, senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, said China and the United States both want to open Hormuz, but “there is no consensus on the preferred approach to achieve this goal.”
While China has called for restraint on all sides, President Trump has threatened Iran with major military attacks on an almost daily basis.
Iran has refused to consult directly with the United States before it lifts its naval blockade.
Earlier this month, US military efforts to reopen Hormuz by force while maintaining a siege of Iranian ports were short-lived, lasting less than 48 hours without significantly increasing traffic in the strait.
“Washington understands that it may need China’s help to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, but it also recognizes the implications of seeking direct assistance from China to lift the blockade, as that would likely give China an advantage in bilateral relations,” Yang told Al Jazeera.
“As a result, President Trump is trying to force Iran to accept terms offered by the United States by force, and is threatening to resume bombing if Iran does not agree to the terms.”
In April, Mr. Xi proposed a “four-point plan to protect and promote peace and stability in the Middle East.”
Commitment to peaceful coexistence Respect for national sovereignty Compliance with international law Support for a “balanced approach to development and security”
Although vague, the proposal reflects President Trump’s preference for multilateralism and diplomacy, as opposed to his reliance on military force to advance his goals in the region.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last week.
China’s Foreign Ministry said after the meeting: “China believes that a comprehensive ceasefire is extremely urgent, a resumption of hostilities is even more unacceptable, and it is particularly important to abide by the negotiations.”
“China supports Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security, and appreciates Iran’s willingness to seek a political solution through diplomatic channels.”
At the same time, China called for the restoration of “normal and safe shipping routes” through Hormuz, a move that appears to contradict Iran’s claims of sovereignty over the strategic waterway that emerged after the war.
US-China relations
China has been buying oil from Iran despite U.S. sanctions, and the U.S. government has expressed concern that Beijing is selling products that could be reused for military use by Iran.
But before the war, the Iran File was added as a result of competition between the United States and China.
Over the past two decades, as China’s economy and regional and global influence have grown, the U.S. government has come to view China as the world’s greatest challenger.
During his first term, President Trump formally recognized China as a strategic competitor of the United States.
The 2017 U.S. National Security Strategy states, “The United States seeks to continue its cooperation with China, which uses economic incentives, penalties, influence operations, and implicit military threats to persuade other countries to heed its political and security agenda.”
“China’s infrastructure investments and trade strategy are reinforcing its geopolitical ambitions.”
Former President Joe Biden continued where the Trump administration left off by declaring China a “pacing challenge” to Washington.
The United States is promoting the deepening of alliances in the Asia-Pacific region to counter the rise of China.
As competition intensifies, relations between the two countries have soured in recent years over several points of tension, including trade practices, sanctions, China’s claims to the South China Sea, the coronavirus pandemic and Taiwan’s status.
Relations particularly deteriorated in 2022 when then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan.
A few months later, another crisis occurred. The US government accused the Chinese government of sending “reconnaissance balloons” into US airspace. China claimed the plane was a weather balloon that drifted over the United States.
However, since returning to the White House in January 2025, President Trump and his administration have placed less emphasis on great power competition.
President Trump’s latest national security strategy said the United States aims to shift its focus to the Western Hemisphere rather than competition in the Asia-Pacific region.
Still, tariffs and trade remain a major irritant in the relationship. Iran and Taiwan could also exacerbate tensions.
What does China want?
Although Iran views itself as a regional power and emphasizes its independence from allies and enemies alike, China has a lever it can strengthen against Iran: trade ties.
But even if Mr. Xi supports Mr. Trump’s push to reopen Hormuz Island, analysts say that support will not come for free.
A key priority for the Chinese government is Taiwan, an autonomous island that China claims as its own.
Although the United States nominally advocates a “one China policy,” it has stopped short of officially recognizing Taiwan as a nation, but has provided arms and strengthened trade relations with Taiwan.
President Trump has yet to sign the latest $14 billion arms package for Taiwan approved by Congress.
Professor Palmar said China could demand opposition to Taiwan’s independence in return for pressure on Iran to reopen Hormuz.
Harlin also said that China is primarily interested in talking about Taiwan.
“They believe that the Trump administration is potentially weaker or more vindictive in terms of its position on Taiwan. Specifically, it appears that the Chinese side is trying to persuade President Trump not to move forward with this arms sales deal that has essentially been left on the table,” Hulin told Al Jazeera.
Brian Osgood contributed reporting.
