U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with members of the media on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Marine One on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 in Washington, DC, USA.
Bonnie Cash | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Prediction market traders predict that President Donald Trump will make several important announcements when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Karshi traders believe there is an 86% chance that Karshi will announce that China will buy aircraft from domestic manufacturers. boeing.
That view was shared by Wall Street, with Boeing shares rising nearly 2% ahead of Wednesday’s meeting.
“President Trump wants this to be the largest order ever announced, which could mean a triple-digit, multibillion-dollar purchase commitment from Boeing,” Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. politics and policy at Wolfe Research, said in a note. “Investors will have to wait for clarification from the company on how ‘real’ those numbers are and what specific aircraft are included.”
Traders also believe there is a greater than 81% chance that President Trump will announce an extension of the U.S.-China tariff truce. In the October deal, China suspended rare earth export controls, while the United States agreed to reduce tariffs on China from 20% to 10% on fentanyl.
Barclays predicted that tariffs could be reduced by several percentage points if China buys aircraft, as well as U.S. oil and soybeans. Karshi traders see a 79% chance that a soybean purchase will be announced, but the probability of an oil purchase is much lower, at just 24%.
Traders also see a 69% chance that a U.S.-China trade commission will be announced. This is a key goal of U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer’s office, Wolf’s Marcus noted. “I suspect this will be done primarily through continued purchase commitments, with the Trade Commission eliciting a unified answer from China on what China buys from the United States to reduce bilateral trade surpluses,” he said.
Trump told reporters on Tuesday as he departed on a tour that he planned to discuss the Iran war with Xi, but added: “I don’t think we need any help when it comes to Iran.” Despite this, traders see a 61% chance that he will talk about Tehran in bilateral talks. There is also a 59% chance that he will talk about oil and gasoline.
But traders believe there is only a 54% chance that he will talk about artificial intelligence. Jefferies analyst Edison Lee predicted in a note Tuesday that the topic would garner significant interest given the backgrounds of the executives expected to accompany President Trump on his trip.
“In addition to the discussion on US AI chip/WFE (wafer fabrication equipment) export restrictions, with the presence of Micron’s CEO and Meta’s president, issues such as a ban on Micron products in key Chinese infrastructure and restrictions on Facebook may also be part of the discussion,” he said. “We also view these issues as part of the negotiation process related to U.S. technology regulation of China.”
And while tensions between China and the US have increased recently, traders don’t think that will stop the firm handshake. Traders see the most likely scenario as Trump and Xi shaking hands for about 8.5 seconds.
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