Maine may fire Susan Collins. It could hurt the state’s wallet for years.

Maine may send Sen. Susan Collins packing after this year’s midterm elections. The decision could hurt Pine Tree State’s balance sheet for years to come.

Collins, the only federally elected Republican in New England, is fighting for his political life against upstart Democratic Party progressive candidate Graham Platner. Mr. Platner, an oyster farmer and military veteran, used anger directed at President Donald Trump and anti-establishment hostility to propel him to the Democratic nomination, forcing Democratic Gov. Janet Mills to abandon his Senate campaign within months. His yard signs dot the state’s back roads and neighborhoods, and he leads in nearly every in-person vote with Mr. Collins.

This race, like most midterm elections, is shaping up to be a referendum on a president who is trailing nationally in nearly every opinion poll. And even as things in New England turn steadily greener, Mr. Collins, who has repeatedly defied Republican expectations, is clearly bucking the tide as voters consider whether to give Mr. Trump a Senate majority in his final two years in the White House.

Control of the Senate is objectively important. If Democrats win the Senate, it will likely prevent President Trump from appointing a fourth, and perhaps fifth, Supreme Court justice. If Democrats also gain control of the House, it would also open the door to a bicameral investigation into the president. Democrats remain unlikely to take control of the Senate. A May 13 report from BCA Research predicts that Republicans will maintain a narrow majority in the House.

But Maine voters will face a special quandary when they go to the polls to decide Collins’ fate. Do they really want to clip the golden goose’s wings to loosen Trump’s grip on Washington?

Collins, 73, who is running for a sixth term, is at the peak of his power in a Senate where seniority is paramount. Mr. Meiner, a moderate, chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, a position that gives him the ability to be the guardian of the federal government’s purse and repatriate billions of dollars while having tremendous influence over the administration.

“This is a classic political issue for many years,” said Rep. Chellie Pingree, a Maine Democrat who represents the state’s southern 1st Congressional District. He said it was “hard to predict” whether voters would choose the certainty of seniority or the “politics of the day.”

In a phone interview with CNBC, Collins argued for re-election, saying he is in a position to do more for Maine than others can. And she didn’t stand firm when pointing out what the state would lose if she fell.

“Maine is going to lose a lot,” Collins said. “Even if, by some miracle, Graham Platner were appointed as the new member of the Appropriations Committee, it would take years for him to accumulate the seniority, experience, knowledge, and power necessary to become subcommittee chair.”

“Look how long it took me to become chair of all committees,” she said.

It took Collins, who was first elected in 1997, until 2025 to take over the spending gavel. Before her, the last Maine senator to exercise the system was Frederick Hale, who assumed the post in 1932. Hale is a Republican and served in the House of Representatives for 24 years.

Mr Collins and Mr Hale said they once whipped a newspaper editor who published an inflammatory article about their mother. She was a staunch moderate Republican and the first Republican woman to serve as chair. But she is known in Washington for her lucrative career.

In the years since 2021, when Congress-directed spending, or appropriations, were reinstated, Collins has generated nearly $1.5 billion in revenue for Maine, according to his office. Nearly $429 million of this was allocated in fiscal year 2026 alone. While some lawmakers quietly ask for their quotas, Collins is loud and proud of his quotas.

“It’s been 92 years since a Maine senator has chaired an appropriations committee, so I realized this was a once-in-a-century opportunity to make real change for Maine and our country,” Collins said. “I was able to secure nearly $1.5 billion in Congress-directed spending projects for more than 650 projects in all 16 counties across the state.”

Collins said the renovation of fire stations is “grossly outdated and often not a healthy environment for firefighters.” It also received $9.6 million to build a roundabout in Cumberland, nearly $5 million to expand a local health facility in Calais, and $6 million to improve sewage treatment in Bideford, to name a few.

Mr. Platner’s camp does not dispute that Mr. Collins brought home the bacon. But he argued in a campaign statement that the money doesn’t make a huge difference to everyday Mainers. Platner’s campaign did not make Mr. Collins available for an interview, but also pointed to campaign contributions that Mr. Collins has received over the years.

“The money Sen. Collins has brought to Maine projects pales in comparison to what she has pumped into immoral wars overseas and lined the pockets of billionaire donors,” a campaign spokesperson said in a statement. “She’s taking money from Big Pharma while local hospitals are closed. She’s taking money from Lockheed Martin and voting for another never-ending war. She’s profiting from stock trading and voting against Congress’ ban on stock trading.”

“No amount of spin will change the fact that while Susan Collins has gotten richer after 30 years in Washington, working Mainers’ lives have gotten worse. And Mainers feel it, too,” the spokesperson said.

Collins has also garnered controversial votes over the years. She recently voted in favor of the SAVE Act, a bill that would make it harder to vote in U.S. elections. She also voted for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who continued to support overturning the landmark abortion rights case Roe v. Wade.

Mark Brewer, chair of the University of Maine’s political science department, said the money Collins brought in was important.

“It’s huge in Maine. There’s no way around it,” Brewer said in an interview. “This is something Collins is going to use throughout this campaign. And there’s really no big response to it.”

“She covers the state, and we all know that it matters, no matter what your party affiliation is, and that it matters,” he said.

However, Mr. Trump’s presence has a lot to do with Mr. Collins’ re-election. Voters are rebounding from the second Trump administration, which gave Democrats an overwhelming victory in the 2025 off-season election and repeatedly showed low approval ratings in public opinion polls.

For Democrats running in every state, including Maine, fighting Trump is no different than any campaign. And Mr. Collins is – normally – a reliable Republican.

Mr. Collins has sometimes incited Mr. Trump’s ire by voting against his own party. And she is known for questioning the party’s legitimacy before ultimately voting on its line. She did not vote for the president’s signature tax and spending bill of 2025, known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” She voted to impeach President Trump after the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Most recently, she joined Democrats in voting against President Trump’s war on Iran, a change from weeks of voting in favor of war.

“When Republicans are in doubt, they vote for the exact opposite of Sen. Susan Collins. Generally speaking, you can’t go wrong,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform last July. “Thank you for your consideration in this matter, and let’s make America great again!”

In the interview, Collins said he is approaching his volatile relationship with President Trump the same way he has approached past administrations.

“I’ve worked with five presidents, and I didn’t agree with any of them on every issue, and this president is no different,” Collins said. “Regardless of who is in the White House, I have a proven track record and I always try to build working relationships with Cabinet members.”

Collins also said most voters don’t understand another important part of her job. It’s about mocking members of the Trump administration to reverse decisions when they withdraw funding for important projects or do something that hurts the state. One example is Operation Catch of the Day, a short-lived immigration crackdown in Maine that was quickly canceled after backlash.

“The enhanced operation stopped, but it appears it stopped because Collins called it in,” Brewer said.

Because she is a vulnerable Republican in an election year, the White House has accommodated Collins when other blue and purple states have been reluctant to do so, despite her shaky relationship with the president.

Collins warned that if she were voted out, her influence would be lost not only in Maine but throughout the New England region.

“I’m the only one in the current delegation who can do that,” Collins said.

She recounted a less-publicized example in which the Trump administration cut funding for the Maine Sea Grant, a research and business support program for the state’s famous fisheries run by the University of Maine. The program is run by the Department of Commerce and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, under Secretary Howard Lutnick.

“I was on my way home from the annual Fishermen Forum…I received an email saying the administration has ended the marine grant program for Maine,” Collins said. “So I immediately called Secretary Lutnick, the Secretary of Commerce, and explained how incredibly important this program is to our nation’s fisheries, to our lobstermen and women, to University of Maine researchers and coastal communities.”

“Simply put, we put it back together,” she said.

But whether that’s enough for Collins to resist this trend remains to be seen. While senators have historically held up elections despite changing political trends in their states, their luck typically runs out eventually, as evidenced by the 2024 ouster of former Democratic Sens. Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio.

Brewer said there’s no question that Maine is turning blue, but it’s still enough of a purple state for Collins to pull off a victory.

“In typical New England style, Rockefeller-type Republicans could win here too, and Collins is demonstrating that cycle after cycle,” he said. “Now, it won’t last forever. But we don’t know if the clock will strike midnight in 2026.”