West Ham and Tottenham remain locked in a battle against relegation ahead of the final two rounds of Premier League fixtures. Which side will survive?
The London rivals are separated by two points in 18th and 17th respectively after Spurs could only draw with Leeds following West Ham’s defeat against Arsenal.
With Nottingham Forest and Leeds having secured their survival, one of West Ham or Spurs is guaranteed to join relegated Wolves and Burnley in the Championship next season.
Their next games could be pivotal, with West Ham away to Newcastle, live on Sky Sports on Sunday, before Spurs make the short trip to Chelsea, live on Sky Sports on Tuesday.
Opta make Spurs strong favourites
According to Opta’s predicted table, which factors hundreds of thousands of data points and is based on 10,000 simulations, Spurs are strong favourites to survive.
Opta give Spurs a relegation chance of only 19.54 per cent, compared to West Ham’s 80.46 per cent chance.
The chart below shows how those chances have changed over the course of the campaign. At the start of the season, Spurs and West Ham were given 13.44 per cent and 21.73 per cent chances of relegation respectively.
West Ham’s relegation probability climbed as high as 89.64 per cent in January, following a nine-game winless run. At that point, Spurs were 13 points ahead of the Hammers in the Premier League table, with a relegation chance of only 0.22 per cent.
Spurs, though, were in the early stages of a 15-game winless run at the time which caused their relegation probability to start steadily rising in the month of February.
It climbed above West Ham’s for the first time in April but a major swing occurred earlier this month, when Spurs’ form began to pick up under Roberto De Zerbi and West Ham suffered their back-to-back defeats against Brentford and Arsenal.
Opta now give Spurs an ‘expected’ final points total of 40, putting them just clear of West Ham’s expected total of 39, and essentially predicting Spurs will survive by drawing both of their games, with the Hammers predicted to win one and lose one.
But don’t Spurs have tougher games?
Both teams are preparing for difficult away trips next.
But history suggests St James’ Park is a far happier hunting ground for West Ham than Stamford Bridge is for Spurs.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Spurs’ 1-1 draw with Leeds
The Hammers, 3-1 winners against Newcastle at the London Stadium in November, have won two of their last four games at St James’ Park, including last term’s 2-0 victory. It is more than Spurs have managed at Stamford Bridge in the entire Premier League era.
Incredibly, Spurs’ 3-1 win in April 2018 remains their only Premier League victory at Stamford Bridge in 33 attempts. Their three per cent win rate at Stamford Bridge is their lowest at any ground since the start of the Premier League era.
“I do think Tottenham have got the more difficult game,” said Jamie Carragher on Monday Night Football. “Newcastle away won’t be easy. But Chelsea away? We know the rivalry. Chelsea will be absolutely desperate to send Tottenham down.”
Spurs can, however, take encouragement from Chelsea’s dismal form. They ended a six-game losing streak by fighting back to draw 1-1 with Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday under interim boss Calum McFarlane but you have to go back to early March for their last win.
Sunday 17th May 5:00pm
Kick off 5:30pm
Newcastle, meanwhile, were on a similarly poor run before claiming a 3-1 win against Brighton then drawing 1-1 with Nottingham Forest. But Eddie Howe’s side have nothing left to play for bar pride this season, whereas Chelsea need points to secure a European finish.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Paul Merson has his say on the VAR-dominated outcome of the Premier League game between West Ham and Arsenal
One positive for Spurs is that while they get an extended rest before the Chelsea game, the Blues have to juggle a potentially draining FA Cup final appearance against Manchester City four days earlier.
Spurs will aim to capitalise on any potential Chelsea fatigue, especially given they have what looks like a tougher final fixture than West Ham too. De Zerbi’s side host 10th-placed Everton, who, like Chelsea, might still be fighting for a European place, while the Hammers come up against Leeds.
Daniel Farke’s side are of course safe from the drop, although that didn’t cause them to ease up against Spurs on Monday. “Leeds played a good game,” De Zerbi told Sky Sports. “We hope they play like this against West Ham because it is right like this.”
Tuesday 19th May 7:00pm
Kick off 8:15pm
For Spurs, with the Everton game in mind, there is also the worry of their poor home form. Spurs haven’t won at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in 10 games, dating back to a 2-0 victory over Brentford in December. It’s their longest winless home run since 1994.
Will the De Zerbi effect win out?
Spurs’ failure to beat Leeds has left them with work to do but they have a two-point cushion on West Ham and superior goal difference too. There is also a sense, despite Monday’s draw, that their performances are picking up as the Hammers lose momentum.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Should Antonin Kinsky be Tottenham’s new No 1?
While West Ham have suffered back-to-back losses for the first time since January, Spurs are on their longest unbeaten run since October having not lost any of their last four games under De Zerbi.
The Italian’s appointment has made a difference. “What De Zerbi has done is given them belief, because everybody knows he’s a top coach,” added Carragher. “He’s what fans have been screaming out for. They want a plan, not just with the ball, without the ball.”
De Zerbi has certainly provided that. Spurs continue to misfire in attack but defensively they are transformed. They have only conceded five goals in five games so far and a closer look at the numbers highlights the extent of their improvement.
Having ranked among the Premier League’s worst sides defensively prior to De Zerbi’s appointment, Spurs now rank as one of the best. They are in fact allowing fewer expected goals against and fewer shots on target than any other side since De Zerbi’s arrival.
Could that solidity, and the strong performances of Antonin Kinsky in goal, give Spurs the edge for what lies ahead? Their two-point cushion and superior goal difference means two draws from their remaining games would likely be enough to keep them up. The odds are in their favour. But there could be more twists to come.
