A man is photographed outside the Versailles restaurant in Miami, Florida, on May 20, 2026, holding a sign supporting the charges announced by U.S. federal prosecutors against the former Cuban president.
Chandan Khanna | AFP | Getty Images
The US pressure campaign against Cuba appears to have entered a new phase, raising serious questions about the Trump administration’s ultimate goals for the communist-ruled Caribbean island.
The Justice Department on Wednesday released an indictment charging former Cuban President Raul Castro with murder in the 1996 downing of his military plane. Castro is 94 years old and was defense minister at the time of the attack.
The move, which took place on May 20, a symbolically important day recognized as the formal birth of the Republic of Cuba, marked one of the sharpest escalations in tensions between Washington and Havana.
FBI Director Kash Patel called the indictment of Castro and five others “a major step toward accountability.”
The move is part of President Donald Trump’s broader efforts to achieve regime change in Cuba, a strategy that includes recent tightening of economic sanctions and a push to impose an oil blockade on Cuba starting in January.
It has triggered a worsening economic crisis, with Cuba facing its biggest challenge since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Last week, Cuba’s Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levi said the island was running out of oil and diesel and described the country’s predicament as “extremely tense.”
The escalating humanitarian crisis inside Cuba remains a wild card, potentially requiring improvised responses from both sides.
robert manx
Head of Americas Research at Verisk Maplecroft
Some Cuban officials have warned in recent weeks of possible U.S. military intervention.
This coincided with other media reports that the Trump administration was conducting intelligence gathering flights off the coast of Cuba, with Cuba reportedly increasing its fleet of more than 300 military drones from Russia and Iran for possible use against U.S. targets, reflecting a pattern that has emerged ahead of U.S. military operations in both Venezuela and Iran.
Antoni Capsia, a professor of Latin American history at Britain’s University of Nottingham, said he consistently doubted whether full military action was seriously considered on the U.S. side.
But in Cuba, the state has always taken military threats seriously and prepared for them, Capsia told CNBC in an email.
The Russian patrol ship Neustrahimi arrived in the port of Havana on July 27, 2024, as part of a fleet consisting of the training ship Smolny and the offshore oil tanker Yernya. The Russian fleet will be on the island from July 27th to 30th.
Yamil Raji | AFP | Getty Images
“The Pentagon has certainly long held the view that military action would be on an unacceptable scale, with American soldiers in body bags,” Capcia said. “That seems to be why the United States is going hot and cold on the Cuba issue — one minute negotiating through ‘back channels’ and the next threatening immediate action.”
“So far,[Trump]has openly said that he will continue to use economic policies to squeeze the regime, and that’s definitely what he’s doing. It’s cheaper than war, and it’s certainly making[life]more difficult for ordinary Cubans.”
CNBC has contacted the Cuban Foreign Ministry and the White House spokesperson and is awaiting a response.
What’s next for Cuba?
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel dismissed the indictment against Castro on Wednesday, saying on social media that it was a “political maneuver without legal basis, intended only to inflate the fabricated documents used to justify the folly of the military invasion of Cuba.”
Díaz-Canel said earlier this week that the threat of a military invasion of Havana by the United States was well known, adding that if it came true “it would cause bloodshed with incalculable consequences.”
President Trump has previously talked about the possibility of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba and said the White House could turn to Havana after the Iran war. The US president also said he could do anything he wanted with the country, adding that he would have the “honor” of “occupying Cuba.”
Robert Manx, head of Americas research at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, said that while the Trump administration’s exact intentions remain unclear, the U.S. government’s current stance points to pressure rather than an imminent direct move.
Manx told CNBC in an email that Cuba’s most existential risk is not foreign intervention, but “whether the state can keep the lights on long enough to maintain control.”
“Even though security forces are likely to contain the violence in the short term, further power outages could lead to further food and water shortages and severe instability,” Manx said.
“The escalating humanitarian crisis inside Cuba remains a wild card and could force ad hoc responses from both sides,” he continued. “While further aid is expected to arrive from regional countries such as Mexico and Uruguay, the U.S. blockade will continue to impact the daily lives of ordinary Cubans.”
Alexander B. Gray, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategic Security, said the Trump administration’s end goal with Cuba is clear.
“The goal is to delegitimize the Castro regime and create the conditions for medium-term domestic change that is more consistent with U.S. interests,” Gray said in a memo released Wednesday.
“America’s interests are a regime in Havana that aligns with U.S. security priorities and opposes interference outside the hemisphere by America’s rivals such as China and Russia,” he added.
