Voters in Texas headed to the polls Tuesday for the highly contentious Republican runoff in the U.S. Senate primary between the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump, and incumbent John Cornyn, who has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002.
The winner of the runoff will advance to the midterm elections in November, where he will face Democratic candidate James Talarico.
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Democrats have not won a statewide seat in Texas since 1994, but races have become increasingly close over the past decade. Paxton, who is likely to be the Republican nominee, is thought to be unlikely to put up a good fight against Talarico in the general election.
Why is Texas competitive now when it wasn’t in the past? In November, Al Jazeera analyzed why changes are occurring in Texas.
Who are the candidates?
Ken Paxton, 63, is the Republican attorney general of Texas who received support from President Trump in a lengthy post on the president’s social media platform, Truth Social. The longtime Trump ally is known to take on Big Tech companies such as Facebook in 2022 for allegedly using Texas biometric data without prior consent, and Netflix earlier this month.
Paxton also said he has made border security a core policy and wants to complete President Trump’s construction of a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. He also promised to cut taxes while investing in the development of cryptocurrencies.
In endorsing Paxton, President Trump said another candidate, John Cornyn, did not support him during “tough times.”
But Cornyn has voted for Trump 99 percent of the time and has worked closely with Trump on immigration and border security.
Cornyn, 74, from Houston, served as state attorney general and as a justice on the Texas Supreme Court before becoming a senator.
Why are Republicans concerned about Paxton?
Paxton’s history is full of controversy. He faces allegations of extramarital affairs, securities fraud and support for the January 6 insurrection, which political strategists say Democrats could use in attack ads during the general election.
“Ken Paxton presents Democrats with a target-rich environment in November, including allegations of extramarital affairs, mortgage fraud, securities fraud, a 7,000 percent increase in his net worth while in office, retaliation against conservative whistleblowers, support for January 6th, and ties to disgraced financier Nate Paul, who used his position as attorney general to benefit himself. There’s a lot of work to do,” said Rice University political science professor Mark Jones. the university told Al Jazeera.
Among the most vocal Texas Republicans against Paxton is state Rep. Matt Shaheen, who argues that Paxton will hurt the Republican Party’s prospects statewide.
“Ken Paxton is the Democratic Party’s best hope for turning Texas blue!” Shaheen wrote in a post about X.
Another article said, “Paxton will toast Talarico and vote out the Republican.”
Shaheen was referring to a poll commissioned by the Cornynist superpolitical action committee Conservative Majority Texans and shared with The Texas Tribune that suggested Paxton’s nomination could lead to a 5-8 point drop among Republicans in the runoff. The difference could turn a safe Republican district into one that could flip for Democrats.
Shaheen declined Al Jazeera’s request for an interview.
Republicans are also concerned about how the race will affect the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. The Democratic victory is historic, considering the state has been held by Republicans since 1994. But it also brings Democrats one step closer to reversing control of the Senate, giving them the power to nominate not only Cabinet members but also agency heads and judges.
President Trump’s endorsement of Paxton comes amid growing frustration with Senate Republicans after they failed to comply with President Trump’s request to remove Sen. Elizabeth McDonough. Republicans have ruled that funds for President Trump’s proposed ballroom program cannot be included in the Immigration Enforcement Fund adjustment process.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly lobbied for Cornyn’s support.
The NOTUS news organization said Republicans fear that if Cornyn loses, there will be little incentive to support Trump’s policies for the remainder of his term, similar to Bill Cassidy, who recently lost re-election in Louisiana.
“The next six months could be very difficult for President Trump. He’s less likely to get certain things done,” Renee Cross, senior executive director at the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, told Al Jazeera.
“The average voter may not be paying attention to the behind-the-scenes shenanigans or the nightly news, but they are paying attention to the fact that gas prices are going up, food prices are going up, and there’s a war going on that’s unpopular on both sides,” Cross said, referring to the U.S.-Israel war against Iran.
Texas, along with Maine and North Carolina, is one of the few states where Republicans could lose control of key seats.
Who will the winner face in November?
The winner of Tuesday’s runoff will face James Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative who secured the Democratic nomination by defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a controversial primary in March. Talarico received 52% of the vote.
Talarico became famous as a left-wing political voice with a religious background. He has been a vocal critic of Christian nationalism, describing it in 2023 as a “cancer on our religion.”
His policy proposals include banning stock trading by lawmakers, establishing term limits for Congress and banning presidential pardons.
On cost of living issues, he supports raising the federal minimum wage and increasing taxes on corporate stock buybacks.
On the diplomatic front, Talarico has expressed support for using U.S. influence to stop human rights abuses against Uyghurs, Rohingya and Sudanese people, and to protect Ukraine’s freedoms in the face of Russian aggression, but he has not provided many details.
He is speaking more specifically about Israel. He supports reducing arms funding to Israel while continuing to support Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system. He is also an advocate of a two-state solution.
Why are these races different?
In a hypothetical matchup, Talarico would either be tied, within margin, or ahead of both Republican candidates.
A poll by the Barbara Jordan Center for Public Policy Research showed Mr. Talarico tied with Mr. Paxton, with Mr. Cornyn leading by one point within the margin of error.
Other polls show Democrats’ lead even wider. A University of Texas poll shows Talarico leading Paxton by eight points and Cornyn by seven points. Meanwhile, a Texas poll showed Talarico leading Cornyn by 3 points and Paxton by 5 points.
This marks a marked change from recent Texas Senate races, where Democrats were often competitive but were still considered the underdogs heading into Election Day.
Two of the most competitive recent U.S. Senate races in Texas both involved Ted Cruz. In 2024, Cruz defeated Colin Allred by about nine points.
In 2018, Beto O’Rourke came as close as a Democrat to defeating a Republican in recent years, but ultimately lost to Cruz by a 2.6 percentage point margin.
“People are much more dissatisfied with the direction of this country than they were in 2018,” Cross said.
“Yes, this is a Republican state and there are some Republican seats, but it could end up being a perfect storm for Democrats.”
Cornyn’s U.S. Senate seat has historically been less competitive, but the margin has narrowed in recent years.
Cross said independent voters could make the difference in this race. The Texas Polling Project found that 36% of independents favored Talarico over Cornyn and 39% favored Talarico over Paxton, while the majority of independents remained undecided.
“In Texas, independents tend to skew Republican, so given the close races, that could be a big factor,” Cross added.
“Our movement to take back Texas for working people goes beyond partisan politics, because the greatest battle in this country is not left versus right, but top versus bottom,” the Talarico campaign said in a post about X, which the campaign pointed out in lieu of a statement.
Paxton and Cornyn’s campaigns did not respond to Al Jazeera’s requests for comment.
