A “Now Hiring” sign is displayed in front of a recruiter speaking to a job applicant at the WorkSource North Seattle Career Fair on Tuesday, February 10, 2026 in Seattle, Washington, USA.
David Ryder Bloomberg | Getty Images
Kalsi traders expect job creation to slow in May but still beat the Dow Jones consensus.
Dow Jones expects the May nonfarm payrolls report, released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, to add 90,000 jobs. The consensus reflects an expected decline in nonfarm payrolls from April’s record 115,000 and March’s 185,000, the highest so far this year.
Kalsi traders on Monday had estimated a 56% chance the report would beat Wall Street expectations.
The probability that 100,000 or more new jobs will be added after the release of the April jobs report has sharply increased and is now 49%. Traders on Monday also predicted a 40% chance that new jobs would exceed 110,000.
RBC Economics had a more hopeful outlook than the Dow Jones.
The company reported last Friday that it “expects the unemployment rate to remain stable at 4.3% and to add 99,000 jobs.” “So far in 2026, the labor market looks solid. Still, overall, new job creation has been fairly limited, with average monthly salary increases of $55,000 over the past six months.”
The jobs data will be released ahead of the Federal Reserve’s first meeting with new Chairman Kevin Warsh on June 16-17. The market expects the Federal Open Market Committee to hold off at this meeting, but the jobs report could influence that decision.
Dow Jones also expects hourly wages to rise 3.4% annually, down slightly from 3.6% last month. Economists also expect average hourly wages to rise 0.3% month-on-month, slightly higher than last month’s 0.2% increase.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
