Democratic U.S. Senate candidates Josh Turek (left) and Zach Walls.
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Iowa Democrats will vote Tuesday in one of this year’s most-watched primaries, a key test of the party’s strategy to take control of the Senate in this year’s midterm elections.
Voters will choose between the front-runners, state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Walls. Both men are vying to become Iowa’s first Democratic senator since Tom Harkin, who was last elected in 2008. Whoever wins the primary will face off against Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, who represents the state’s 2nd Congressional District, and U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst, who is retiring at the end of the year. Hinson’s primary opponent is Jim Carlin, who is heavily favored. win.
Whoever takes office will face the difficult task of winning a state that President Donald Trump won by a 13-point margin in 2024 and has nearly 200,000 more registered Republican voters than Democrats. However, Democrats are bullish on winning the seat as President Trump’s approval rating declines due to the Iran war and the state’s economic woes.
Farm bankruptcies are on the rise across the state. Tax revenue is on the decline. And tariffs and the Iran war are hitting soybean and other farmers hard. Meanwhile, a Morning Consult poll released in May found President Trump’s approval rating in Iowa was -7, lower than it was in February, before the Iran war began. The same poll says it is “likely” that the Republican Party will win the Senate race.
The battle between Mr. Turek and Mr. Waals was also emblematic of a larger struggle between more moderate and progressive wings within the Democratic Party, a referendum on Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D.N.Y.).
The Iowa Senate general election could be crucial in Democrats’ bid to take back the chamber. To do so, he will need to successfully flip four states that Trump won, including Iowa, Texas, North Carolina and Maine, while also successfully defending seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
“The big battle right now within the Democratic Party is who is more likely to win,” Timothy Heigl, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, said of the Democratic primary. “Which way do we go? Of course, Republicans want Mr. Walls, because he’s so far left that he’s probably going to alienate independent voters. And a lot of Democrats are saying, ‘We need Mr. Turek because we need to have a chance to fight this election.'”
Mr. Turek is seen as a strong candidate, with support from Mr. Harkin, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and a handful of sitting senators. Turek, who lives in Council Bluffs on the state’s western border with Nebraska, is a Paralympian who flipped a state House seat long held by Republicans.
“I am the only candidate who has even run against Republicans, let alone won this race,” Turek posted on X in May. “I’m experienced and ready to take on Ashley Hinson and win.”
Walls is seen as the more progressive candidate. He has received support from Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who pledged during the campaign not to support Schumer as party leader if he wins. He lives in Coralville, a college town on the outskirts of Iowa City in Johnson County, a Democratic stronghold.
“Donald Trump chose Ashley Hinson for this seat. My primary opponent is Chuck Schumer. But this seat doesn’t belong to them. It belongs to the people of Iowa,” Walls wrote in a post on Substack on Monday.
Iowans will also vote Tuesday in primaries for three of the four congressional districts and for Republican gubernatorial candidates in five races, including Republican state Rep. Randy Feenstra. Rob Sund, Iowa’s state auditor, is running unopposed for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
