K-pop group BTS arrives at the “BTS The Comeback Live Arirang” concert held in central Seoul, South Korea on March 21, 2026, and poses for a photo.
Handout | via Reuters
Tens of thousands of BTS fans descend on Busan, South Korea, on Friday as the seven-member group makes its second stop in the country as part of its globe-spanning Arirang tour.
They arrive with light sticks, banners, tickets, and money to spend.
Pop culture influencing the economy is nothing new. The term “Swiftonomics” has become an abbreviation for the influence of Taylor Swift’s Elas Tour, which filled hotels, restaurants, and stadiums around the world.
Currently, Korean securities company NH Securities has created a term for BTS called “Bangtannomics,” which is a combination of the Korean group name “Bangtan” and “economy.”
NH explained the fan consumption path as follows. Online fandom first becomes streaming, albums, and merchandise, then expands to Korean beauty, food, fashion, and eventually tourism.
The securities company said in a May 21 document that 84% of the world’s ARMY (BTS’ fan base) are in their teens and 20s. As they grow older and gain more purchasing power, these fans may come to South Korea and contribute to the South Korean economy through tourism spending.
In fact, NH predicts that by 2040, BTS fan spending could contribute up to 0.35 percentage points annually to South Korea’s GDP.
To put this into numbers, 0.35% of South Korea’s nominal GDP in 2024 is approximately $6.58 billion, according to calculations by CNBC.
Some of the early numbers from Bangtannomics are promising. Korean media, citing government data, said fans who came to see BTS’ first concert in April were likely to stay longer and spend more than tourists who didn’t attend the concert.
This is supported by a 2019 paper by Byun Joo Hyun, professor of international business economics at Korea University. Byun found that BTS concerts held in South Korea attract many foreign tourists and generate additional spending within the country.
Byun’s paper, sent to CNBC, found that 98% of foreign concert attendees in Seoul said they planned to return to Seoul within the next five years. Two-thirds of respondents said they plan to return to Seoul five or more times in the next five years.
For concerts in Busan, demand for accommodation soared that the city government had to intervene to curb price gouging among vendors and open more venues to accommodate the large influx of fans.
Predicting impact
While it is reasonable to expect BTS and the broader Korean Wave to contribute to GDP, it is “naive” to think this trajectory is guaranteed, said Natalia Grincheva, associate professor at LaSalle Singapore’s School of Creative Industries.
Geopolitics is one of the risks. In 2016, after Seoul deployed the US anti-ballistic missile system THAAD, China imposed a so-called “soft ban” on Korean cultural exports and restricted performances by K-pop groups in China’s interior.
Grincheva also said that fan behavior is primarily driven by emotional attachment, and emotional attachment is inherently unstable.
“While[NH’s]model shows a plausible trajectory, reliable forecasts must take into account these nonlinear and disruptive factors, rather than assuming a smooth economic pipeline from youth fandom to mature consumption,” she said.
However, that doesn’t mean Bangtannomics is imaginary.
Jonathan McCrory, managing partner and soft power expert at Sanctuary Counsel, said it has the potential to contribute to South Korea’s economic strength in the long term, along with film, television, beauty and food.
BTS is “part of a very successful ecosystem, very successful,” he said.
