U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh arrives in Washington, DC, for a press conference on June 17, 2026.
Brendan Smialowski AFP | Getty Images
The Fed’s latest forecast called for one rate hike in 2026, but the outlook was complicated by the absence of Chairman Kevin Warsh’s forecast.
Nine out of 18 officials expected the federal funds rate to be above the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% in 2026. But that outlook was missing one participant, and Warsh admitted in a press conference after the Fed meeting that he had refrained from giving his own outlook.
The current median forecast puts the federal funds rate at 3.8% by the end of 2026, up from 3.4% in the Fed’s March summary and a quarter of a percentage point above its current target range. The central bank kept interest rates on hold at the end of Wednesday’s meeting, its first under the Warsh administration.
“I didn’t submit the dot for myself. It’s not useful for policy management,” Warsh said at a news conference.
Warsh, who just took over as Fed chair, has signaled an overhaul of the central bank’s communications strategy, arguing that officials may be providing too much forward guidance and placing too much emphasis on charting the future path of monetary policy.
The Fed’s policy statement has also been rewritten more significantly than usual. In recent years, changes have often been limited to a few words or sentences, but Wednesday’s statement was significantly pared down.
The Fed president said Wednesday that he plans to review its communications practices, including press conferences, dotplots, meeting schedules, minutes and minutes, by the end of the year, and said he was “open-minded” about possible changes.
