President Trump’s Iran deal has important benefits for Tehran and Washington oversight

President Donald Trump on Thursday slammed criticism over the terms of the interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran, saying anyone who thinks he’s not being tough enough on Iran is either “jealous, a bad person or a stupid person.”

His comments came shortly after the U.S. and Iranian presidents electronically signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire, including in Lebanon, and reopening the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

The deal, in which the two sides commit to further talks to reach a final agreement in the next 60 days, includes a $300 billion plan to rebuild Iran and the lifting of “all types” of U.S. sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

The interim agreement has led many to conclude that the terms appear to have strengthened the Iranian government’s hand.

“Any idiot who thinks I’m not being tough enough on Iran at a time when the stock market is at record highs and oil prices are ‘crashing’ is either jealous, evil or stupid,” President Trump said Thursday on his platform Truth Social.

The U.S. stock market recently hit new highs, and oil prices fell on news of the Iran peace deal, but are still well above pre-war levels.

Iranian leaders have widely sought to frame the deal as a strategic victory. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the memorandum was an opportunity to address Iran’s economic and political problems and could help create “another world” for Iran and the Middle East.

“I would say that what we’ve been given, at least in terms of the 14-point plan, is wording that is fairly favorable or very favorable towards Iran,” Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Thursday.

“There are still a lot of details to be worked out, such as the pace at which ships will be allowed to sail, right?” Sen said, referring to the language of the memorandum on arrangements for lifting the U.S. naval blockade and safe passage of Iranian commercial ships.

Under the MOU, Iran will allow commercial ships safe passage free of tolls for 60 days. The country will then consult other Gulf states and Oman “to define future administrative and maritime services” in the Strait of Hormuz.

In justifying the interim peace agreement with Iran, President Trump reaffirmed his view that Iran should never acquire nuclear weapons.

But he also said Iran should have the right to enrich uranium, receive access to billions of dollars in frozen funds and be allowed to develop ballistic missiles. All of these issues test the red lines that the Trump administration has hitherto not crossed.

The US president, who attended the G7 summit in France, said he hoped the deal would bring peace across the region and lower oil prices. He also threatened to resume attacks on Iran if it did not honor its commitments.

“If they don’t abide by the agreement, which we don’t want to do, we’re going to bomb them hard,” Trump said at a news conference.

President Trump’s tentative agreement with Iran has raised questions about whether the peace agreement with Tehran was worth nearly four months of war. He also drew comparisons to former US President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran.

President Trump abandoned the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, agreed to in 2015 under the Obama administration, during his first term, calling it “embarrassing” for him as an American citizen.

Ahead of the announcement of the new deal, President Obama said in an interview with ABC News on Sunday that he “suspects” that any deal with Iran offered by the Trump administration would be “very different” from the JCPOA.

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said the final verdict would depend on the details of the framework agreement, but based on previous reports “it looks like Iran has largely won the case on many counts.”

In fact, Schmieding said in a research note on Thursday that the Iran war appears to be strengthening the Revolutionary Guards’ grip on Iran, rather than weakening it, even though the Iranian regime killed thousands of protesters and put down an uprising in January.

He pointed to three geopolitical conclusions from the experience of the past 100 days.

Schmieding said that despite the intense bombing campaign, “the United States has not achieved some of its stated goals, such as regime change in Tehran. This has likely weakened the United States’ geopolitical position.”

Schmieding also said the conflict, as in the case of the war between Russia and Ukraine, shows how a weaker country using drones can thwart the military ambitions of a larger power.

And third, just as high oil prices temporarily refilled Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war chest, the recent correction in oil prices will in turn hurt Russia. “If the Strait of Hormuz reopens permanently, Russia’s financial situation will become unstable again,” Schmieding said.

The National Iranian American Council (NIAC), a Washington, D.C.-based advocacy group focused on promoting diplomacy between the United States and Iran, described the agreement on February 28 as “the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the outbreak of war.”

“However, despite the agreement’s growing momentum, its future remains uncertain,” NIAC said in a post published Wednesday.

“Senior officials in both Iran and Washington have presented the deal as a path to an end to the conflict and a new phase of diplomacy, but it faces staunch opposition from Israel, hardliners in Washington, and a vocal faction of Iranian conservatives.”

Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief Middle East analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, said Iran would maintain “significant leverage” if negotiators looked at Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile threat and support for armed groups across the region.

“Previous negotiations have always included implicit threats to shipping and energy infrastructure, but the extent of the disruption of the past three and a half months will strengthen Iran’s hand,” Saltvedt said in a research paper released earlier this week.