US President Donald Trump boasted about the current state of the economy on social media as a peace deal between the US and Iran approaches, with the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to end the US-Israel war against Iran yesterday.
In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, the president claimed that “oil is flowing,” adding: “The stock market is soaring, employment is at a record, and prices are falling (affordable!).”
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Some of his claims are accurate, while others are misleading. Al Jazeera analyzes this as follows.
“The stock market just hit a record high.”
This is especially true for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The index closed Tuesday at a record high of 51,999.67 amid a cease-fire and a possible rebound from newly listed SpaceX.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from Wednesday’s high to close at $51,494.99 on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced it would keep its benchmark interest rate in its target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The Dow rose 0.35% to $51,671 in midday trading Thursday.
The Nasdaq Composite Index and S&P 500 both fell.
However, this may not have a direct impact on the 38% of Americans who do not invest in the stock market.
“The idea that the stock market is doing well doesn’t reflect people’s experience. There’s a saying that the stock market is not the economy, and that’s an important thing to keep in mind,” Michael Klein, professor of international economics at Tufts University’s Fletcher School, told Al Jazeera.
And that lived experience is at gas stations and grocery stores.
“Prices are falling”
Gasoline prices have started to fall in the past few days. The average price for a gallon of gas (3.78 liters) on Thursday was $3.99, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks daily gas prices. That’s down from May’s all-time high of $4.48, but still well above the $2.98 price it hit on February 28, when the US and Israel first attacked Iran.
Despite the deal, experts believe the drop in gasoline prices for consumers will peak as oil extraction and transportation bottlenecks weigh on supply chains as the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which hit its lowest level since 1983 earlier this week, is replenished.
“Sustaining high prices is a key issue. Transportation, rerouting, insurance and manufacturing costs will not normalize overnight, so even as oil stabilizes, the cost base across the supply chain will remain elevated,” Tammy Kulesa, director of supply chain execution product marketing at supply chain management firm Blue Yonder, said in comments provided to Al Jazeera.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston, Texas, doesn’t expect prices to return to pre-war levels until the last quarter of 2027 or the end of the year.
“Even if we all believe that the ceasefire will hold and that there is no danger of transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, it will still take months for tankers to reach their final destination and return,” Jones told Al Jazeera. “So I think it will take until early fall (third quarter) to be able to replenish inventory.”
Consumer inflation is rising at 4.2%, the fastest pace in three years, pushing up prices of some major goods and weighing on consumers. Energy prices have risen nearly 8% in the past two months alone, while supermarket prices rose 0.1% month-on-month in May, following a 0.7% rise in April, with items such as bakery products, cereals, non-alcoholic drinks, and fruit and vegetables seeing the highest increases.
“Many people are facing real problems. Prices are high and wages are not keeping up with prices, so people’s real purchasing power is decreasing,” Klein said.
Supermarket chains are also paying attention. Kroger, the largest supermarket chain in the United States, announced Thursday that it will cut prices on thousands of items in its approximately 3,000 stores across the United States. This comes amid increased pressure on value shoppers from Costco and Walmart.
“Customers are becoming more prudent with their money and, at times, shopping selectively. There are too many promotional trips and not enough shopping carts,” Kroger CEO Greg Foran said in a statement.
“Employment is at a record”
Despite President Trump’s claims, employment has not reached record levels.
The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May. The highest number during President Trump’s second term was 214,000 in March. By comparison, under his predecessor, former U.S. President Joe Biden, an average of 300,000 jobs were added per month, and some months were much higher, such as July 2021, when 943,000 jobs were added, albeit due to the coronavirus pandemic, as companies scrambled to hire after massive layoffs.
The Trump administration saw months of limited job growth, with a focus on specific sectors such as health care. On average, employers added just 15,000 jobs a month in 2025. Meanwhile, the US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February.
Layoffs are also on the rise. Layoffs jumped 16% between April and May, the highest layoffs since May 2020 at the height of the pandemic, and artificial intelligence (AI) was a driving force behind the layoffs, Challenger, Gray and Christmas said. More than 97,000 people lost their jobs in May.
“Oil is flowing.”
Overnight, 12.5 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, although about a fifth of the world’s oil is normally transported through the strait. However, the number of people passing through the strait remains low, with six confirmed crossings on June 17, according to Kpler data.
As the strait began to open, a tentative agreement to end the fighting and lift sanctions increased global supply pressure, and oil prices fell to their lowest levels since the early days of the war.
Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 fell $0.78, or 1%, to $76.51 in midday trading.
Shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are also increasing, with Kplr saying a Qatar Energy LNG carrier returned to Ras Laffan with more than 209,000 cubic meters loaded.
