A recruiting sign is posted in the window of a Domino’s Pizza restaurant on June 5, 2026 in Los Angeles, California.
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Kalsi traders differ from the Dow Jones consensus on the jobs report released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Dow Jones Consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to decline sharply from May, when job growth totaled 172,000 jobs, more than double its forecast. This month’s report predicts an increase of just 118,000 people. Kalsi traders had indicated in May that the final report was likely to be better than expected.
However, Kalsi traders see a less than 60% chance that employment growth will exceed 100,000 jobs, and about a 42% chance that it will exceed 125,000. The contract will be settled after the numbers are verified by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Karshi traders have mixed views on the economy.
After Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that the U.S. economy could grow 3% this year, Kalsi traders pegged the probability that gross domestic product (GDP) would rise between 2.6% and 3% at 14.2%.
Traders on the platform appear to be more in agreement with the Dow Jones consensus on the unemployment rate.
Traders say there is a 71% chance that interest rates will exceed 4.2%, but there is only a 30% chance that interest rates will exceed the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 4.3%.
Wall Street also expects hourly wages to rise 3.5% annually, compared with 3.4% in May’s report. Meanwhile, average hourly wages are expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, roughly in line with May’s total.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
