Erdogan-Trump relationship gives Turkey an advantage ahead of NATO summit

President Donald Trump has criticized and belittled many of the European countries scheduled to attend the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Turkey next week. But the host, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, used his close ties with the US leader to secure their attendance at the event in Ankara – an appearance that could even come with a significant gift related to Turkey’s defense.

“I wouldn’t have gone for most people,” Trump said last week. “But he called me and said, ‘Please, it’s in Turkey. You need to be there. The United States needs to be there too.'” So I’m going to pay homage to President Erdogan.

Leveraging that respect has helped Erdoğan avoid the disruption that Trump’s absence would cause in the alliance, especially at a time when the Republican president has worried allies by repeatedly threatening to withdraw U.S. troops from Europe and reduce the U.S. role in NATO.

President Trump, who frequently praises Erdogan and calls him a “terrible leader,” has long criticized other NATO countries over defense spending. He claimed it was a huge personal victory for everyone to build on last year’s pledge. Recently, it clashed with alliance members for not supporting the war against Iran.

But Trump sweetened Erdogan’s deal by hinting that he could make news during Erdogan’s visit related to the possible sale of jet engines and F-35 fighter jets, which have long been banned because of Turkey’s proximity to Moscow.

Mr. Trump has long admired Mr. Erdogan because of his affinity for powerful leaders. Erdogan first rose to power in Türkiye as prime minister and is now in his 13th year as president.

“The relationship with President Erdogan is very strong and consistent with what we think is his preferred pattern,” said Philip Gordon, former national security adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris. “It has often been noted that he seems to have good relations with his adversaries and dictators, and he certainly says nice things about his adversaries than his allies.”

“President Erdogan is making the most of it,” added Gordon, now at the Brookings Institution.

President Trump, who is scheduled to hold bilateral talks with President Erdogan on the sidelines of the NATO summit, will be the first US president to visit Turkey since Democratic President Barack Obama in 2015. Democratic President Joe Biden, by contrast, kept Erdogan at arm’s length, citing Turkey’s democratic backsliding and close ties to Russia.

Opposition parties and human rights groups have accused Erdogan of undermining democracy and curbing freedom of expression. They say baseless investigations and prosecutions of human rights defenders, journalists, opposition politicians and others remain a persistent problem in Turkey.

Sonar Cagaptay of the Washington Institute said Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Trump personally “hit it off” during Trump’s first term. Following Turkey’s support for Finland and Sweden to join NATO, Mr. Biden invited Mr. Erdogan to visit the United States in 2024, but Mr. Erdogan declined.

“This was President Erdogan’s way of signaling to President Trump, ‘Hey, you’re probably going to win the election,'” Cagaptay said. “I think President Trump saw that as a big gesture.”

President Trump hints at a step toward selling jets to Türkiye
During a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte last week, a reporter asked President Trump if he was bringing a “big gift bag for President Erdogan” on this trip, noting that Turkey’s government wants F-110 jet engines and F-35 fighter jets.

Trump responded, “Yes, I think so too.” “Yes, I’m probably going to do something that would make him very happy.” Trump also suggested in September that the U.S. could soon begin selling F-35s to Turkey.

Turkey was shut out of the program in 2019 after purchasing the Russian S-400 missile defense system. U.S. officials are concerned that Turkey’s use of Russian systems could allow Moscow to gather information about the F-35’s capabilities.

In a meeting in the Oval Office, Vice President J.D. Vance said the U.S. government is exploring ways to sell the aircraft to Turkey, stressing that any sale would ensure Turkey complies with U.S. laws. On Capitol Hill, there is considerable bipartisan opposition to selling F-35s to Turkey as long as Ankara retains Russian missile defense systems, including from influential Republicans such as Sen. Jim Risch (Idaho), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Meanwhile, the F-110 jet engines Turkey is considering purchasing will power its domestically produced KAAN fighter jets. The State Department took a step toward those sales last week when it sent a notice to key lawmakers saying it plans to bypass Congressional opposition for more than $700 million in jet engine sales to Ankara, according to two people who requested anonymity to discuss details of the private notice.

“In this case, the State Department made no effort to justify its decision,” New York Rep. Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement last week. “The government did not invoke any emergency authorities, provided no written evidence, and for months rejected my good faith efforts to brief me on the impact of the sale on U.S.-Turkish relations, Turkey’s continued possession of the Russian S-400 system, and other regional security concerns.”

Relations between the United States and Türkiye are thawing on other fronts as well. Earlier this year, the Trump administration’s Justice Department dropped a major lawsuit against Turkish state-run Halkbank, which had been accused of helping Iran evade U.S. sanctions.

Upon returning to the White House for his second term, President Trump appointed Tom Barrack, a close friend, as ambassador to Turkey. Tom Barrack is a longtime ally and served as chairman of the inaugural committee. “Mr. Barak plays an important role as a facilitator of relations,” said Ahmet Qasim Khan, a professor of international relations at TED University in Ankara.

President Erdoğan and President Trump hold frequent phone calls to discuss Syria, Gaza and the broader Middle East, and Turkey participated in President Trump’s peace commission to monitor the ceasefire in Gaza. President Trump this month asked President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to stay out of the Iran war, and claimed that the Turkish leader complied, but there is no indication that Turkey intended to become involved.

Trump expressed his admiration for Erdogan while standing next to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a joint press conference last year. Netanyahu, whose government is at odds with the Turkish government, had hoped to win Trump’s support by pushing back against Turkey’s influence in Syria, only to find Trump praising Erdogan and urging Netanyahu to be “rational.”

After speaking with Trump at the NATO summit in The Hague last year, Erdogan told reporters that the U.S. president would answer his calls soon, an anecdote that illustrates the close ties between the two countries.

“Together with our friend Trump, we are opening the door to a new era in Turkish-American relations,” Erdoğan said. “So far, the process of telephone diplomacy between us has never exceeded 24 hours. When we make a call, the person on the other end responds within 24 hours.”