In this photo illustration, an online prediction market site’s app is displayed on an electronic device on February 25, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson | Getty Images
The 2026 FIFA World Cup was predicted to be the biggest gambling event in history. For prediction market platforms, that led to a spike in trading volumes in June.
According to data collected by users on Dune Analytics, Kalsi’s notional trading volume for the month exceeded $31 billion, an increase of more than 70% from May’s total of $17.9 billion. The platform has consistently managed more than $1 billion in daily trading volume since the soccer tournament began on June 11th.
Polymarket’s International Event Contract Exchange set a new record for monthly trading volume, with notional transaction value exceeding $10.8 billion in June. This would reverse the downward trend seen in April and May, when volumes declined.
Meanwhile, notional trading volume on Polymarket’s US platform for the month exceeded $3.5 billion, up from $1.77 billion in May.
team usa monday
Team USA is scheduled to play Belgium in the round of 16 on Monday night. More than $64 million has been traded on Calci and more than $122 million on Polymarket as to whether the U.S. will win the tournament, but the odds of doing so are only 4.3% and 3% on each platform, respectively.
The World Cup craze has shocked the prediction market platform Rosella, a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Susquehanna International Group. robin hood. Rossella debuted in June when Robinhood began brokering certain World Cup contracts to its platform.
According to Bank of America, Rothera’s notional trading volume for the month reached $2 billion and currently accounts for 7% of U.S. prediction market trading volume.
All platforms tilted towards the World Cup to increase traffic. Polymarket has launched a contest to give away up to $2 million to whoever can create the perfect final round spot for the World Cup. On Apple’s app store, Kalsi boasted in the mobile platform’s title that users can “trade the World Cup.”
The increase in open interest (the total number of active open contracts on the platform) may also reflect World Cup excitement. Karshi’s open interest is currently over $1 billion. Polymarket’s open interest is just under $400 million. Although prices have gone up, its international platform is about the same as it has been in recent months.
Sports was the focus of last month’s event contract exchanges, but how the platform responded to the surge in deal volumes may indicate how it manages other contract themes in the future.
Asaf Meir, CEO of Solidus Labs, a market integrity firm affiliated with Karshi, said the World Cup is a key moment for platforms as both regulators and institutions are looking at their performance.
Meir said outside observers are wondering, “Is it safe enough? Is it mature enough? Is there enough volume?” “The World Cup is a high-pressure test to see whether prediction markets can truly deliver on their promise of leveling the playing field for all investors over the long term in a sustained large-scale environment.”
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
