The OPEC logo and the Iraqi flag can be seen in this illustration taken on June 25, 2026.
Dado Ruvik | Reuters
OPEC+ is expected to agree on Sunday to further raise production targets from August, sources said, boosting global supplies as oil prices fall due to the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports.
The oil producing groups have agreed in principle to increase oil output by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, in addition to similar production increases in June and July, two sources familiar with OPEC+’s thinking said ahead of the group’s online meeting later on Sunday.
The seven core members of OPEC+, an alliance of producing countries including OPEC and Russia, increased their production quotas by nearly 800,000 barrels a day from April to July.
production begins to recover
However, this increase remains largely on paper as the US and Israel’s war against Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to tanker navigation from the most important OPEC+ countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.
OPEC+ production fell to 33.13 million barrels per day in May from 42.77 million barrels per day in February, according to OPEC data. It began to recover in June thanks to U.S. efforts to help the UAE and other OPEC+ countries expand their oil exports, but remains below pre-war levels.
Despite continued supply disruptions, oil prices have returned to pre-war levels, weighed down by falling imports from China, rising exports from producing countries outside the Middle East, and record global strategic inventory releases coordinated by the International Energy Agency.
The memorandum to end the war also helped convince traders that supplies would eventually return to normal levels.
Iraq demands quota increase
Brent crude oil prices traded near $72 a barrel on Friday, down from recent highs of more than $120 a barrel and back to the levels they traded just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.
In addition to agreeing on production targets, OPEC+ faces other challenges after the United Arab Emirates withdrew and Iraq signaled it would seek larger quotas.
Seven countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman – are ramping up production as part of a phase-out of 1.65 million barrels per day of supply cuts agreed to in 2023, a group that still included the UAE at the time.
The UAE left the alliance in late April to be freed from the group’s production restrictions and to more closely align production with production.
Taking into account the UAE’s May 1 exit, the seven countries will see around 379,000 barrels per day of their original production cuts returned to the market from August onwards, according to Reuters calculations.
This means that if the group continues to raise rates at the same pace, it will unwind the remaining cuts by the end of September.
