To many in Israel, it seems inevitable that US President Donald Trump will reassess the relationship between Israel and Washington, which since its formation in 1948 has helped keep Israel’s military out of myriad Zionist militia groups.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now embarking on a perilous path to political survival, with ongoing corruption charges and a general election that could see him step down later this year, leading to possible imprisonment.
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Between the US government’s need to secure a deal with Iran, which includes Lebanon, which Israel has been bombing since 2023, and the Israeli public’s desire to continue the war, Netanyahu faces one of the most difficult periods in his 40-year political career.
A year after reports of friction between the US and Iran during the last war against Iran in June 2025, relations appear to have deteriorated further due to disagreements over how to proceed with relations with Iran.
Iran has made an end to Israel’s war in southern Lebanon a key demand in negotiations with the United States that will ultimately conclude a peace agreement between the two countries, setting the stage for major disagreements between the two countries.
Last month, when allegations of leaked phone calls emerged (which the White House has not denied), President Trump, clearly desperate to end the war with Iran, criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for refusing to halt attacks on Lebanon.
Trump reportedly called Netanyahu “crazy,” accused him of ingratitude, and said he would have already been in jail without the president’s intervention. “Everyone hates you now. Everyone hates Israel because of this,” he reportedly told Netanyahu.
In an interview with Axios last week, Trump said Netanyahu “knows who’s boss,” an acknowledgment that relations between the two leaders are strained.
At a press conference in June, J.D. Vance said that Trump is currently the only world leader sympathetic to Israel. He also issued a stern warning to Israeli ministers who criticized the future US-Iran deal, saying, “Two-thirds of the defense weapons that have protected (the homeland) are manufactured by American hands and paid for with American tax dollars.”
Trouble in MAGA land
Recent polls show that not only are Americans anti-Israel, but there is also strong skepticism among some segments of President Trump’s right-wing populist Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.
MAGA defectors, such as prominent supporter Marjorie Taylor Greene, have been lavish in their criticism of US support for Israel. Among the most vocal critics in right-wing politics is former television host Tucker Carlson, who said in late June that Trump had finally realized that Israel posed the greatest threat to his administration.
Carlson opened the podcast by accusing Trump of “coaxing, persuading, and threatening” Israel to attack Iran as a pretext for starting “a new war against neighboring Lebanon.”
Daniel Byman, a professor at Georgetown University in Washington and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Trump, who leads the Republican Party, traditionally the most pro-Israel party in the U.S. establishment, has options when it comes to dealing with Israel.
“I believe that President Trump has a lot of flexibility. Many Republicans are staunchly pro-Israel, but the president has a very loyal base of supporters and has shown that he can bring a large majority of the party with him,” Byman told Al Jazeera. “Many Democrats will join him in this. Democrats are becoming more critical of Israel.”
Few people in Israel are unaware of the importance of U.S. diplomatic and military support to the country throughout its history. Since 2016, Israel has benefited from a memorandum of understanding that grants $38 billion in military aid over 10 years, the largest agreement ever between the United States and another country.
U.S. diplomatic support has also been crucial to Israel in its globally unpopular genocidal war in Gaza, which has killed at least 72,000 Palestinians since Oct. 7, 2023. The US government has used the UN veto at least six times to support Israel in UN discussions on the issue.
political dependence
In the run-up to Israel’s general election, many of Netanyahu’s political opponents focused on their country’s rift with the United States and growing international isolation, despite majority support. Supporting Israel’s wars in the region, which caused this diplomatic crisis.
In mid-June, former prime minister and opposition leader Yair Lapid stepped up his criticism of Netanyahu’s apparent failure to bring Israel’s key allies to his side.
“If this government is not replaced soon, Israel’s foreign relations will be wiped out,” he wrote to X.
Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli army chief of staff who is most likely to oust Netanyahu in this year’s general election, has similarly criticized the prime minister’s handling of foreign relations.
Eisenkot recently accused Netanyahu of mishandling the situation so badly that he encouraged President Trump to seek a deal with Iran on his own, further isolating Israel from its top ally.
“The United States is really the hinge that guarantees Israel’s place in the world,” said Israeli political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg. “The United States is everything to Israel, providing everything to Israel: defense, technology, diplomatic status.”
American author and former diplomat Aaron David Miller noted that while President Trump is not the first American president to clash with Israel, few have clashed so publicly.
“(But) no president or vice president of the United States has ever spoken in the language of the current administration or disclosed any discussions that would disparage or discredit the president or vice president of Israel.” “Israel has never been more unpopular with Congress and the public, including both Republican and Democratic voters.”
But despite the tensions, there is no sign that the Trump administration is considering a complete break with Israel.
“If Trump were to put serious pressure on Israel, he would need to pursue significant breakthroughs that would make him look good,” Miller said.
“There is nothing wrong with that. The normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is close to a breakthrough that justifies continued pressure on Israel, whether in Lebanon or Gaza.”
