Scientists have been closely monitoring the tropical Pacific Ocean in recent months, predicting the arrival of an intense “super” El Niño, one of the most powerful on record. This El Niño now has the potential to set a benchmark for peak intensity, with potentially disastrous effects on extreme weather events affecting the world.
El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean are expected to rapidly strengthen over the coming months, reaching their highest levels before peaking in late fall or early winter, forecasters have warned.
It is already colloquially called Super El Niño. Only a handful of events in the past few decades have reached such levels of intensity, the most recent occurring in 2015-2016.
But some computer models now predict that this El Niño could be stronger than any other event dating back to at least 1950. “I think it’s fair to say that depending on the model, the predictions are close to unprecedented,” Michael Tippett, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University, said in an email.
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El Niño is a periodic weather cycle in which ocean temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal and weather patterns change across the region accordingly. Changes that occur here have global implications.
When El Niño events occur, huge amounts of heat move from the oceans into the atmosphere, raising the average global temperature and increasing the likelihood of global extreme weather events.
Recent computer model predictions show that El Niño is likely to become more intense at its peak compared to previous simulations, making it even more likely to cause global disruption. In addition to heatwaves and other damage, some areas may experience flooding and others may experience drought.
In addition to weather-related disasters, El Niño events can also affect agriculture. For example, El Niño is known to reduce rice yields and potentially cause food price inflation in India and other parts of Asia.
The World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations’ meteorological arm, is calling on officials around the world to prepare for El Niño-related impacts. WMO also seeks to mobilize UN agencies to anticipate the possibility of extreme events that may require a humanitarian response.
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“The consensus is definitely moving towards a stronger phenomenon,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist who closely monitors El Niño model predictions.
“Model runs show that the probability of a very strong event is consistently higher compared to a few months ago, with higher estimates each month,” he said. “At this point, it is very likely that we will experience a record-breaking El Niño event this year.”
The new model outbreak does not guarantee that El Niño will become as intense as depicted, but it does show a trend. And that prediction is backed up by what’s already happening. For example, over the past month, ocean temperatures in the areas where scientists monitor El Niño have been record high for this time of year, as hot water rushes eastward from the western Pacific Ocean, intensifying and intensifying El Niño.
However, there is an important wildcard. The idea is that the Earth is warming due to human-induced climate change. Never before had an El Niño of this strength been expected when the world was already so hot. Global sea surface temperatures are now at record highs, and the world is on track for another top-five warmest year.
It is possible that global warming background conditions change some of the typical effects of El Niño, but exactly how is a matter of debate. The last El Niño in 2023-2024 did not cause the typical change in weather patterns known to scientists as a “teleconnection,” but no two El Niños are exactly alike.
Although the 2023-2024 event was not as intense as the current event was predicted, a stronger El Niño event is likely to affect weather patterns on multiple continents.
WMO issued a statement late last week warning that El Niño is expected to rapidly intensify from July to September, causing major changes in weather patterns around the world.
“El Niño is already underway and is expected to rapidly intensify and become a more powerful event,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Sauro said in a statement. “This will increase the risk of land and ocean heatwaves in many parts of the world,” she said.
The United Nations agency has released temperature and precipitation forecasts for July through September, each broadly consistent with the typical effects of a strong El Niño, which tends to peak during the northern hemisphere winter.
WMO’s latest update does not mention a link between El Niño and the record heat waves that have hit Europe and North America so far this spring and summer, but it does indicate that temperatures are likely to be above average globally from July to September.
