Tropical Storm Vata is slowly forming in the northeastern Gulf Coast and is expected to bring days of heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast region from Florida to Louisiana.
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Bertha may have become famous, but it’s still not a well-organized tropical cyclone. Most of the strongest thunderstorms remain confined to the southern half of the circulation, and dry air continues to hamper development despite fuel from record warm water.
This is the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, but it is lagging behind in recent years as El Niño strengthens in parts of the basin.
As a result, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a lower-than-average number of named systems in the Atlantic this season.
Bertha will track along the Gulf Coast and is likely to make landfall as a weak tropical storm near southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi by late Wednesday night.
Bertha is expected to face increasingly severe conditions in the coming days, including severe wind shear that will limit its strength.
This shear has already moved most of Bertha’s thunderstorms south of its center, preventing the storm from organizing better.
Tropical systems that interact with dry air and land tend to weaken because they are deprived of the warm, moist ocean conditions that drive thunderstorms.
These unfavorable factors could even cause this system to dissipate over Louisiana, but the latest forecasts call for it to reach the Upper Texas coast as a tropical storm by the end of the week.
Regardless of the system’s fate, heavy rain, strong winds and some coastal flooding will affect the northern Gulf Coast from Monday night through at least midweek.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for coastal Alabama, Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. Tropical storm conditions are expected in these areas within the next 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Florida Panhandle coast from west of the Ochloconee River to the Jefferson-Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana. A tropical storm is likely to develop in these locations within the next 24 to 48 hours. Additional watches could be issued further west along the Louisiana coast and into Texas in the next day or two.
Here’s what you can expect:
• Rainfall: Widespread totals of 2 to 4 inches, with the strongest thunderstorms capable of up to 6 inches, from the western Florida Panhandle to southern Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and possibly the Texas coast. This can cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas like New Orleans.
• Wind: Tropical storm conditions with sustained winds of 39 mph or greater are possible in the tropical storm watch area along the coasts of Alabama, Mississippi and eastern Louisiana from Monday night into Tuesday. Tropical storm watch areas in the western Florida panhandle and coastal Louisiana could see these conditions late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Isolated power outages are possible as the thunderstorm’s wind gusts increase.
• Storm surge: Water levels from the mouth of the Mississippi River in southeastern Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida border could rise 2 to 4 feet above normal. A storm surge watch is in effect for the area and life-threatening saltwater flooding is possible within the next 48 hours.
