A series of US measures against Brazil, including various tariffs and sanctions against local criminal organizations, are having a negative impact on Brazilian voter sentiment ahead of October’s presidential election.
Incumbent left-wing president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term and will be running against Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, the son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years in prison.
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Brazil’s first round of general elections will be held on October 4th, with a run-off vote to be held on October 25th if both Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro win.
Lula has presented himself as a defender of Brazil’s sovereignty against U.S. tariffs and sanctions.
Last week, US President Donald Trump’s administration announced 25% tariffs on a number of Brazilian products following a year-long investigation that called Brazil’s trade practices “unreasonable.”
The United States alleged that Brazil unfairly favored the state-run Pix payment system over private competitors, imposed an 18% tariff on U.S. ethanol imports, and failed to strictly enforce deforestation laws, benefiting Brazilian timber producers.
The levy is part of the administration’s strategy to rebuild the tariff wall after the Supreme Court in February struck down emergency powers that President Trump had used to impose tariffs on most trading partners.
Previous tariffs of up to 50% on Brazil were linked to a criminal case against Jair Bolsonaro, who plotted to overturn the results of the 2022 election he lost to Lula. President Trump called the investigation a “witch hunt.”
A recent Qwest poll in Folha de São Paulo suggested Lula had a 45% to 37% lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in the second runoff.
“Brazilians are so averse to U.S. tariffs that his political movement, Bolsonarismo, is worried that the tariffs will actually strengthen Mr. Lula’s support in the next election,” said Jimena Sánchez, director for the Andes at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA).
He said Mr Bolsonaro’s victory in October would be in the broader interests of the US government.
Early relationship between Trump and Bolsonaro
Mr. Trump has been a vocal supporter of Mr. Bolsonaro from early on, and when Mr. Bolsonaro became president of Brazil in 2018, his political style was compared to Mr. Trump’s. In the run-up to Bolsonaro’s 2022 reelection bid, President Trump released a video praising Bolsonaro as “one of the greats in politics.”
Bolsonaro refused to concede after losing the election and questioned the reliability of Brazil’s electronic voting machines. Thousands of his supporters then stormed government buildings in the Federal District of Brasilia.
Prosecutors have alleged that Bolsonaro and his allies staged a coup to keep him in power. In July 2025, while the case was still ongoing, President Trump imposed the first round of tariffs on Brazil and sanctioned the Brazilian Supreme Court judge overseeing the case.
“Since his first term, Trump has been a leading figure not only for the Bolsonaro family but also for a wide range of far-right politicians in Latin America,” said Gustavo Blum, a Brazilian geopolitical analyst.
He said coordination was simpler in 2018, when Trump was primarily focused on countering China, an important trading partner for Brazil and countries in the region, as well as left-wing political leaders on the continent.
“Currently, the imposition and reimposition of trade tariffs makes it difficult for Mr. Bolsonaro to present the perspective that President Trump looks out not only for the interests of Americans, but also for the interests of Brazilians,” Blum said.
A family facing legal problems on two fronts
In June, a panel of Brazil’s Supreme Court found Jair’s third son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, guilty of lobbying the United States to intervene in his father’s case. Eduardo had immigrated to the United States full-time to “focus 100 percent” of his energy on the “single purpose” of freeing his father.
The commission said Eduardo’s actions amounted to coercion against Brazil’s judicial system and sentenced him to four years and two months in prison.
Meanwhile, Flavio has been under separate domestic scrutiny since May, when it was reported that he had solicited around $24 million from imprisoned former head of bankrupt financier Banco Master, Daniel Borcaro, to help finance a film about his father.
Flavio admitted demanding money but denied any wrongdoing or illegality.
Blum said the scandal has added to the family’s difficulties with both Washington and Brasilia. “The family has not been able to capitalize on their ties to Trump,” he said.
Mr Flavio urged Washington to delay imposing new tariffs until after the election, saying he would give Mr Lula “the very political victory he has orchestrated”.
Lula accused Bolsonaro of inviting the pressure himself and called the request “another act of treason against the homeland.”
Sovereignty as a campaign claim
WOLA’s Sanchez said the Bolsonaro camp’s lobbying efforts in Washington have had little success.
But one request turned out to be effective. Days after Flavio met with Trump at the White House in May, the State Department designated Brazil’s two major criminal organizations, PCC and Commando Vermelho, as foreign “terrorist” organizations.
Flavio personally requested this designation and said it was the result of his lobbying efforts. Lula criticized the move as an “arbitrary” measure that threatens Brazil’s sovereignty.
A tariff order issued by Washington a few weeks later separately named Pix, Brazil’s government-run free payment network used by more than 90% of Brazilians, for unfair trade practices.
Flavio defended the system in front of U.S. officials, saying Pikus was “good for Brazil.”
Be cautious about corporate support
Brazilians, regardless of their political affiliation, have reacted negatively to Trump’s involvement in the election.
“Even right-wing Brazilians are not very happy to see President Trump trying to interfere in Brazil’s elections, because they think Brazil’s problems should be solved in Brazil, not in Washington, D.C.,” said Patricio Navia, a political scientist at New York University.
Navia said the reaction also reflected Brazil’s desire to avoid becoming drawn into a broader conflict between the United States and China, its largest trading partner.
“China is our most important trading partner, and the United States is our most important strategic partner,” he said. “They don’t want their best friend and most important trading partner fighting.”
Brazil’s manufacturing and agribusiness sectors, which broadly supported Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022, have become more cautious under economic pressure from President Trump’s tariff policies.
Navia said the unpredictability of how the Trump administration will use tariffs makes it difficult for any ally to plan to avoid them. “Even people who call themselves Trump’s friends don’t know what’s going to happen,” he said.
