Bertha continues to sail along the Gulf Coast, bringing tropical storm-force wind gusts, treacherous beach conditions, and localized rain. But its most significant effects could play out hundreds of miles away in the mid-Atlantic.
The chaotic, lopsided tropical storm formed centered south of the Louisiana coast early Thursday, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Bertha is expected to move near or along the coasts of Louisiana and north Texas through Thursday afternoon, and into interior Texas by Thursday night.
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Meanwhile, a plume of tropical moisture associated with Virta is flowing into a cold front extending into southeastern Virginia, parts of the Carolinas, and northern Georgia. The moisture could lead to a surge of flood-like rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic coast and Southeast into Thursday, with potentially more severe impacts than those occurring near Bertha itself.
Bertha is expected to maintain tropical storm strength until it reaches the north Texas coast late Thursday, then dissipates over Texas by Thursday night or Friday. The storm could bring 2 to 4 inches of rain along the Texas Gulf Coast and south Texas, with isolated rainfall totals up to 6 inches and isolated flash flooding possible. Meanwhile, that moisture will continue to pose the threat of even more catastrophic flooding further east.
Vata is the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, but it has lagged compared to recent years as El Niño has increased its impact on parts of the basin.
The storm system that caused historic flooding in West Virginia from Tuesday into Wednesday and wreaked havoc from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast will remain in Virginia and the Southeast through the weekend.
Vata’s moisture began to enter the region in earnest on Wednesday, setting the stage for fresh flooding threats.
The influx of moisture and its stalled low-pressure front have already produced bands of rain across eastern Tennessee, southern Virginia, and northern North Carolina. A flash flood warning was issued for areas north of Knoxville Wednesday morning due to the storm in northeast Tennessee, with up to 5 inches of rain falling in some areas within hours.
More rain is forecast into Friday, with some areas potentially seeing a month’s worth of rain in just a few days.
Rain is needed to break the drought in southern Virginia and North Carolina, but repeated heavy rain over several hours or days in the same region can quickly lead to dangerous flash flooding.
Parts of the Virginia-North Carolina border are under a Level 3/4 flood risk from Thursday into Friday morning.
Thursday afternoon’s thunderstorms could bring up to 2 inches of rainfall per hour, and the intensity could quickly overwhelm drainage systems and flood urban areas. Atlanta, Birmingham, Alabama, and Charlotte, North Carolina are among the cities at risk.
The flooding threat continues Friday, with a level 4/4 risk extending from coastal North Carolina to South Carolina, northern Georgia and northeast Alabama.
Some Level 2 risk areas may be upgraded to Level 3 as forecasting models gain a clearer picture of exactly where the heaviest rain will fall.
