Americans are keeping their cars longer than ever before, with the average age of a car in the U.S. rising to 12.8 years, according to Mobility Global. But some industry analysts and forecasters worry that highly complex, software-defined cars will age just like smartphones.
These vehicles rely on sophisticated computers and software to control many functions that were once strictly mechanical or managed by simpler technologies. They can also receive software updates over the air, typically connected to the Internet or a communications network, allowing automakers to remotely diagnose problems, implement fixes, and add new features.
“A software-defined vehicle is actually a vehicle that is never obsolete. It is a vehicle that continues to improve over time through over-the-air updates,” said Wassym Bensaid, chief software officer at Rivian. “What we say with Rivian is that the Rivian you get from us is the worst the day you buy it, but then it gets better and better over time.”
A Rivian R1T is seen outside startup Rivian Automotive’s electric vehicle factory in Normal, Illinois, on April 11, 2022.
Kamil Krzaczynski | Reuters
The rise of these technology-intensive vehicles has implications for the entire automotive industry. With an average price of nearly $50,000 in the U.S., it’s a much bigger investment than a smartphone, but as your car gets older, some features may become obsolete due to aging hardware or end of product support. Constantly changing and often proprietary technology raises questions about the long-term repairability of vehicles.
“Honestly, we don’t know how long these vehicles will last,” said Sam Fiorani, senior vice president of vehicle forecasting at AutoForecastSolutions. “We’re already seeing problems where the hardware can’t keep up with the new software.”
outdated technology
This is not the first time car owners have faced technology losses.
In 2022, AT&T was the first carrier to shut down its 3G wireless network, leaving millions of vehicles across numerous brands without access to features such as emergency response services and some navigation and infotainment options. The vehicle was still operational, just without the perks that were included when the owner purchased the vehicle.
teslaMeanwhile, the company said in 2016 that every vehicle produced would have the necessary hardware for fully self-driving (FSD), and CEO Elon Musk reaffirmed in 2019 that the company’s then-new Hardware 3 computers would support the feature. But Musk said in April that Hardware 3 vehicles would need upgraded computers and cameras to enable “unsupervised” FSD. Tesla said eligible customers will receive a hardware upgrade or a discounted trade-in.
Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.
Rivian’s Bensaid said the company is trying to build out enough hardware capabilities, or what he calls “headroom,” to support software upgrades over about seven to 10 years.
“There is a distinction between feature updates, which are new additions you get after a car is released or purchased, and safety and security updates,” he said. “Our commitment to owners is safety, and security updates are supported indefinitely by Rivian. Your vehicle remains fully functional and completely secure, no matter how long you own it.”
long term concerns
Inside a Tesla Model 3 in full self-driving mode.
Null Photo | Getty Images
Sam Abuelsamid, Telemetry’s vice president of market research, expects it will be common for features to be updated for several years and then retired as software outpaces hardware. However, automakers will likely continue to provide basic support, especially in the form of safety and security patches and bug fixes.
“From a product liability standpoint and a safety standpoint, they have an incentive to resolve those issues as best they can,” he said.
But while software is expensive to maintain, hardware can break down and need to be replaced.
When 3G service ends for these cars in 2022, the question arose whether their resale values would decrease as a result. Fiorani said a larger percentage of customers are turning to used cars and is concerned about the long-term availability of affordable used cars.
Alex Yurchenko, J.D. Power’s vice president of data insights, said software-defined vehicles are “unlikely to fundamentally change the used car market.” However, the market can be divided into two categories. One is that some vehicles have continuous radio support and will hold their value better, while others don’t. Manufacturer-certified used vehicle programs could become more important because customers may like peace of mind, he said.
“Valuation remains a challenge,” he said. “There are no widely accepted criteria for evaluating software-enabled features, and buyers may have concerns about[advanced driver assistance system]coordination, feature availability, data privacy, and long-term availability of subscriptions and connected services.”
A used Tesla electric vehicle is located at a Plug-In Auto dealership on March 30, 2026 in West Covina, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Fiorani, a classic car fan, wonders what the rise of software-defined vehicles means for car culture, including collectors, restorers and other enthusiasts.
“For that matter, when these vehicles become classics, how will they be maintained and how will they support aftermarket care?” he said.
Older cars can come with their own challenges, like obscure parts and hard-to-find service manuals. Vehicles that run on proprietary software platforms present challenges, and servicing them can require specialized skills, tools, and access to vehicle data.
So-called right-to-repair laws that give consumers more access to repairs on their cell phones, cars and other technology are beginning to spread across the United States.
Benside said Rivian vehicles will soon have more access for owners to comply with these laws.
“One of the updates we’re planning to make going forward is to actually unblock what’s called the in-vehicle service menu and allow owners to take more actions in line with their right to repair regulations,” he said. “But we want to go beyond that and actually realize the possibility for the owner in the car to use the AI assistant or the on-screen menu to perform a full diagnostic check, perform some basic repairs, and then direct them to some of the certified third parties that we recommend.”
Abuelsamid said companies that choose not to provide support for their products should be required to release their software to a third party who can maintain it.
“Going down that path really embeds the right to repair as something that everyone has access to, so yeah, I’m more optimistic than I was before,” he said.
