A man waves an Iranian flag in front of a political billboard in Valiasl Square in central Tehran on August 8, 2026. Hopes that a deal between the United States and Iran to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is imminent have fueled optimism that oil, gas and other key products will start flowing freely again after more than five months of war. However, oil prices began to rise ahead of the weekend amid reports that Iran was planning to block US and Israeli ships from the waterway and amid lack of confirmation of the deal. (Photo credit: ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images) /
Atta Kenare | AFP | Getty Images
Hello, this is Leonie Kidd from London.
Like me, volatility seems to be taking a break over the summer. After weeks away from newsrooms, the market appears to be in a holding pattern.
The VIX Implied Volatility Index has fallen to multi-year lows, but it feels like it won’t be long before the market mood shifts in the opposite direction…
What you need to know today
The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran expires today. A senior White House official, speaking anonymously to Politico, said negotiations between Washington and the Iranian government are “static.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a Telegram post that his country “has not made a decision to resume negotiations with the United States,” but Al Jazeera reported that Iran is working on another agreement with Oman to restore traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
damage of exhaustion
Experts have warned that the depletion of US strategic oil reserves could damage caverns storing oil. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since it was reclaimed in the early 1980s, according to the Department of Energy. Disruptions related to the Iran war have led to the rapid release of stockpiles, increasing operational risks.
domestic demand
Japan’s second quarter GDP was lower than expected. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.1%, falling short of the expected 2% growth rate. Sluggish domestic demand put pressure on strong exports, and the weaker yen provided a tailwind.
delayed data
China’s long-awaited release of economic data has been postponed to Monday to coincide with President Jiang Zemin’s 100th birthday celebrations. Data due to be released at 8am BST will include retail sales, industrial production and house prices for July.
Daimon’s call
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon reportedly spoke by phone with new British Prime Minister John Healy. According to the Financial Times, Wall Street bank leaders used the conversation to lobby the British government against creating a more hostile tax environment for banks.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan could soon become the first trillion-dollar bank. That’s according to Wells Fargo. “JPM’s best-in-class investment capabilities for superior growth will help JPM not only pass the $1 trillion (market cap) milestone, but also reach $2 trillion (annually) in an estimated seven to eight years,” analyst Mike Mayo said in a client report Thursday.
— Leonie Kidd
And finally…
Hidden Outperforming Companies: Dispelling Myths About the Unloved Stock Market
European stocks have historically struggled to evoke the kind of investor enthusiasm enjoyed by U.S. stocks and some fast-growing Asian markets. The continent has few high-growth companies, its capital markets are shallow, and its long-term profit growth story is considered unconvincing.
However, a surge in government spending in early 2025 revived the market. This year’s story is more nuanced, but the pan-European Stoxx 600 index has proven surprisingly resilient.
— Joseph Wilkins
