Paramount and Warner Bros. logos can be seen in this illustration.
Dado Ruvik | Reuters
Prediction markets still watched by traders paramount skydance Acquisition attempt is likely to be successful warner bros discoveryBut a court battle with 12 state attorneys general raises the possibility that the merger will fail.
Traders at prediction market platform Calsi believe there is a 74% chance that Paramount will acquire Warner Bros. by July 2027, but a 22% chance that the deal will not close by that date.
Until California and 11 other states filed suit to block the merger on July 13, Paramount had a more than 80% chance of success in acquiring the company. But on July 24, when Paramount announced it was delaying the deal to 2027, the odds of a successful merger dropped to 66%.
In Carsi, speculators are asked in the market who will successfully acquire Warner Bros. by July 2027, with deals determined from news reports, official press releases, or government filings.
Meanwhile, on the Polymarket platform, there is a similar 23% chance that the acquisition will not be successful by June 30, 2027. Contracts at Polymarket are resolved using reporting consensus.
The merger termination date is March 4, 2027, but that date will be automatically extended to June 4, 2027 if only regulatory hurdles remain.
A federal judge has set a March 2027 trial date for each state’s case. Before announcing the date, Paramount said it would not complete the acquisition until the earliest of the court’s ruling on the states’ claims or June 1, 2027. If the deal is not completed by September 30, Paramount will be obligated to pay Warner Bros. shareholders 25 cents per share each quarter until the deal is completed.
Last week, the Directors Guild of America and the International Union of Stage Employees sent a letter to California Attorney General Rob Bonta and Paramount CEO David Ellison, who have been leading state lawsuits against the merger, urging them to negotiate a resolution or move the trial start date forward to avoid prolonged uncertainty.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
