The U.S. military has helped transport more than 660 million barrels of crude oil by tanker through the Strait of Hormuz since early May, Central Command told CNBC this week.
Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for U.S. Navy Central Command, said in a statement Thursday that the military assisted about 1,300 commercial vessels transiting Hormuz during the same period.
“Several lines remain open for free commercial traffic,” Hawkins said.
This suggests at least 160 million barrels, or more than 7 million barrels per day, have passed through the strait in the past three weeks, based on previous military announcements. Central Command announced on July 29 that the U.S. military has helped transport 500 million barrels through Hormuz since May.
This shipment is still significantly lower than prewar fuel exports (about 20 million barrels of crude oil and products per day via Hormuz). However, US military statistics show that despite Iranian threats and attacks, significant amounts of oil are still passing through the strait.
It’s unclear how much oil is leaking from Hormuz each day, as the U.S. government offers different estimates, typically higher than data from independent ship-tracking companies.
About 10 million barrels a day have leaked from the Strait in recent weeks, U.S. officials told Axios on Wednesday. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on August 11 that the seven-day average had risen to nearly 9 million barrels per day.
Private monitors have given different estimates.
According to estimates by maritime information company Windward, crude oil exports via Hormuz averaged about 5 million barrels per day in July, compared to about 4 million barrels per day in June and 1.6 million barrels per day in May.
Exports are expected to increase in August compared to July, said Michel Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.
“Despite the fact that Iran is putting tremendous pressure on maritime security, my assessment is that it is growing and growing rapidly,” Bockman said.
“Gulf countries have the protection of the US military, it’s no secret,” the analyst said. He said both countries were “ready to do whatever we can” to increase oil exports through the strait.
Brigitte Diakun, head of maritime intelligence and research at Lloyd’s List, said there was a lack of hard information about the exact amount of oil passing through Hormuz due to the complexity of tracking ships during wartime.
Diakun said ships often sail at night, but satellite images are usually taken in the morning. “There are a lot of unknowns,” she said at a briefing Thursday.
The U.S. Energy Secretary said last week that “many private companies underestimate the number of ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz due to the clandestine use of ships that transit the Strait.”
“In collaboration with the U.S. military, the U.S. Department of Energy maintains the best available data related to oil and petroleum products flowing out of the Arabian Gulf,” Wright said in a social media post.
conflicting controls
The security situation in Hormuz remains controversial. Iran announced on Tuesday it would close the strait until the United States meets its obligations under an interim peace agreement signed on June 17. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump insisted the strait was open and under U.S. control.
Hormuz Island has been divided into two different shipping routes for several months. The U.S. military is supporting ships using the southern sea route off the coast of Oman. It also imposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Tehran requires ships to use the northern route through its territorial waters or risk attack.
“The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz is a matter of contention,” said Jacob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at BIMCO, one of the world’s largest shipping industry associations.
The strait is 34 miles wide at its narrowest point. Larsen said the US has more control closer to Oman and Iran has more control closer to the coastline.
“But both sides can still project power to either side of the strait,” he said. “In Oman’s territorial waters and Iran’s territorial waters, it is practically impossible for either side to fully protect its interests.”
At least 17 commercial vessels were attacked in and around the strait in July and August, according to the International Maritime Organization, a United Nations agency. At least four sailors were killed and more than a dozen injured in these attacks.
But a sailing tanker earns $500,000 a day, said Windward analyst Bockman. Seafarers receive double or triple their pay for these connections, she said.
“Extracting oil is a very intensive, serious operation, with high risks and high rewards,” Bockman said.
