Even if US President Donald Trump threatens an “economic D-day” against Iran, he is unlikely to bend the country to his will without China’s participation. But President Trump has little leverage over China to make that happen.
Last week, the US president vowed to have “tremendous economic consequences” for countries that continue to do business with Iran. And on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled down on President Trump’s warnings, promising “the biggest financial attack ever waged against an adversary” in a Financial Times op-ed published the day before he was expected to reveal details of Washington’s pressure campaign.
China buys about 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, according to a fact sheet from a U.S. Congressional committee. China does not allow the import of Iranian crude oil based on customs data.
This situation is unlikely to change now, especially as China recognizes how unpopular the ongoing conflict is in the United States and abroad, and with Chinese leader Xi Jinping scheduled to visit the United States next month.
After a tumultuous year in U.S.-China relations sparked by a new round of tariffs, President Trump has every reason to prevent tensions between the world’s two largest economies from escalating again. The situation has so far calmed down following a visit to Beijing in May.
Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian said that “sanctions and pressure tactics are not the answer” to the US economic pressure campaign against Iran.
“China calls on the parties to act responsibly and stick to its political and diplomatic approach,” he reiterated on Friday.
President Trump’s economic options against China are also becoming increasingly limited. The U.S. Treasury has sanctioned independent Chinese refineries that import Iranian crude, but in May the Chinese government ordered its companies to ignore those restrictions.
If the United States takes large-scale action against China, there is also the risk of triggering countermeasures from the Chinese government. China holds the trump card in rare earths, critical minerals needed to make many products, from smartphones to electric cars and fighter jets. China handles about 90% of the world’s supplies, so President Trump must tread carefully as Western countries try to build alternative supply chains.
