U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent arrives to testify before the Senate Appropriations Committee, Financial Services Subcommittee, General Government Hearing at the Dirksen Senate Office Building on April 22, 2026, in Washington, DC.
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying to rein in rising yields using a variety of tools at his department’s disposal. But traders on prediction market platforms don’t think yields will fall dramatically.
Calsi speculators believe there is a 56% chance that the 10-year Treasury yield will end 2026 above 4.75%, but only a 27% chance that it will end 2026 above 5%. As of midday trading Monday, the 10-year Treasury yield was trading at about 4.70%.
Karshi traders are asked where they think the 10-year Treasury yield will trade on Dec. 31 for a series of contracts. The contract will be settled using data from the US Treasury Department.
However, the contract has low volume and trades for just over $16,500.
In polymarkets, speculators have a two-in-three chance that the 10-year Treasury yield will rise above 4.8% at some point in 2026, a level that has not yet been broken even during the recent bond selloff. Contracts on Polymarket are also settled using official data from the US Treasury.
Global bonds fell last week as markets assessed the risk of potential higher inflation as the U.S.-Iranian conflict remained unresolved. U.S. debt also exceeded $40 trillion last week, putting further pressure on domestic yields.
In response to the stock market decline, the Treasury Department announced it would double its repurchases of U.S. Treasuries in an effort to stabilize the bond market. Yields initially fell on the news, but rose again a few days after the announcement.
CNBC reported Monday that the Treasury Department may consider tapping into the $1 trillion general fund to finance expanded stock buybacks, according to senior officials.
Yields fell again following this report. But prediction market traders are betting that the drop in yields will once again be temporary and that they will start rising again.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
