President Trump targets Iran trade lifeline – countries most at risk are:

The United States on Monday announced an “Economic D-Day” campaign to isolate Iran from the global economy and threatened penalties against “enablers” who continue doing business with Iran.

The move is part of Washington’s efforts to cut the trade lifeline that has sustained Tehran’s economy throughout the nearly six months of war.

Although there is lingering skepticism about whether the Trump administration will follow through, the threat could still put the United States at odds with the government group that controls much of what remains of Iran’s foreign trade.

According to the US government, China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, accounting for about 90% of Iranian oil exports and being Tehran’s key link to the global economy.

According to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, China reported $9.96 billion in bilateral trade with Iran in 2025, but this does not include about $31.2 billion in unreported Iranian crude oil exports that year.

Kpler said independent Chinese refiners take most of the oil, which is often rebranded as Malaysian or Indonesian crude and settled through intermediaries outside the dollar system. This year, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on some of these refineries for purchasing Iranian crude oil, while sparing Chinese financial institutions.

The Chinese government has openly opposed U.S. sanctions against Iran, arguing that economic pressure will not resolve the conflict. In May, China ordered domestic companies to ignore U.S. sanctions on five refiners linked to Iranian oil trade.

Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, said Beijing was unlikely to directly push back against the US sanctions push, but would “quietly tighten compliance” among state banks and oil companies to avoid being caught in the net, pointing to the “dichotomy between public statements and private practices.”

“Chinese authorities are placing greater emphasis on dollar access for financing and market access to the United States,” he said.

Emirates is located just 80 miles from Iran across the Persian Gulf and has long been Iran’s main trading hub.

According to World Trade Organization data, bilateral trade amounted to about $28 billion in 2024, with Emirates being the largest source of imports, accounting for more than 30%. The UAE is also Iran’s third largest export destination, accounting for 12% of total exports, totaling more than $7 billion.

The relationship hit a rock last week when the UAE suspended all trade and financial transactions with Iran after two ballistic missiles were fired into UAE territory, one of which targeted a UAE-owned tanker.

According to the Washington Institute, a US-based think tank, Iran relies on UAE banks and its financial system to access the global economy through illicit and often opaque transactions, and severing ties with Iran will require stronger action by Emirati authorities to crack down on opaque financial and trade activities.

“The vast majority of Iran’s transshipment, smuggling, and shadow banking activity takes place in Dubai, so the U.S. government must do everything it can to help the UAE national leaders in Abu Dhabi persuade and appease those in Dubai to play ball,” Matthew Levitt, a former U.S. Treasury official, said in a memo on Monday.

Turkey maintains important commercial ties with Iran, importing Iranian natural gas and exporting industrial products to the south.

According to the Turkish Foreign Ministry, bilateral trade between Turkey and Iran will reach $5.7 billion in 2024, with the Turkish government mainly exporting machinery and parts, chemical products and agricultural products, and importing energy products from Tehran.

Meanwhile, based on a 25-year gas supply agreement between the two countries that expired at the end of July, Turkey’s imports of Iranian gas have soared this year, with Iran’s share of Turkey’s total natural gas imports rising to 18.6%, local media reported.

The Turkish government is seeking to expand pipeline imports from Azerbaijan and Russia and diversify to other supplier countries, but has so far shown no intention to cut ties with Iran.

Iraq relies on Iranian electricity and gas and has historically done billions of dollars in trade with Tehran.

Iran has renewed a five-year contract to supply Iraq with up to nearly 660 billion cubic feet of natural gas annually in March 2024, and electricity imports from Iran will account for more than 30% of electricity generation in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

According to Reuters, trade between Iraq and Iran will reach more than $10 billion in 2025, with Tehran exporting food, consumer goods and other products to the Iraqi market. Trade has shrunk this year due to heightened regional security risks and intermittent disruptions at border crossings since the conflict began in late February.

Iraq reportedly pays Iran about $4 billion to $5 billion a year for natural gas to generate electricity. New US sanctions could reduce Baghdad’s payments to Iranian energy.

India, one of Iran’s top five trading partners, has seen its bilateral trade with Iran fall in recent years from $2.3 billion in the year ending March 2023 to about $1.6 billion in the year ending March 2026, according to India’s Ministry of Commerce.

New Delhi mainly exports rice, tea, sugar and medicines to Iran, and imports dried and fresh fruits from Iran.

In April, India resumed imports of crude oil from Iran after a seven-year suspension after the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

But those deals will now be tested whether Washington follows through on its threat to sanction any companies, including Indian refiners, that source Iranian energy.