Chinese President Xi builds diplomatic influence with multiple state visits ahead of summit with President Trump

Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to make a rare state visit to Egypt and possibly India before his planned visit to the United States in late September.

President Xi “has significantly reduced his international travel in recent years, so his upcoming busy travel schedule is a key measure of his priorities,” Teneo Managing Director Gabriel Wildow told CNBC in an email.

The Chinese leader has made only one overseas trip so far this year, making his first state visit to North Korea in seven years in June. meanwhile. The US-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that the world has come to China, with more than 20 leaders visiting Beijing in the first half of this year, including US President Donald Trump.

With the Iran war, US-China trade tensions, and increasing security risks posed by artificial intelligence, global dangers are only increasing. For the Chinese government, this will lay the groundwork for an evolving global role.

“It’s probably time for China to take on more responsibility and provide more global public goods,” said Hai Zhao, director of international political research at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state-run think tank.

“China is deeply integrated into the global economy, so whether it’s supply chain security, the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, or cybersecurity, China is an integral part of the solution,” he said.

President Xi arrived in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on Sunday. The country will host a security-focused Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit on Monday and Tuesday. The annual event brings together the leaders of Russia, India, and other non-Western countries.

As part of the same tour, which continues until Thursday, Mr. Xi is scheduled to make his first official visit to Egypt in 10 years. China is increasing its presence in the Suez Canal region by establishing a bilateral economic and trade cooperation zone.

Mr. Xi is then expected to attend another summit of non-Western countries, the BRICS, to be held in New Delhi from September 12th to 13th. China has not yet confirmed Xi’s participation. Xi’s visit to India will be his first since 2019 and since deadly border clashes broke out between the two countries in 2020.

Experts said the US plans to be tougher on Russia to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, while aiming to improve relations with India and China, and will closely monitor developments at the SCO and BRICS summits.

Last year, when the United States imposed tariffs on Beijing and New Delhi, a video of Mr. Xi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin laughing together at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin went viral online.

The meeting infuriated the US government, with President Trump claiming that it had “lost India and Russia to the deepest and darkest form of China”.

A lot has changed since then. President Trump announced in February this year that he would reduce tariffs on India from 50% to 18%, and the two countries are negotiating a trade agreement. President Trump also made a landmark visit to China earlier this year, and President Xi is scheduled to visit Washington in September after the BRICS summit.

But India and China still face the threat of tariffs of up to 100% from Washington if the U.S. House of Representatives passes the Graham Act, which would punish countries that buy Russian oil. More than 50% of India’s crude oil supplies came from Russia in June and July, and about 43% as of last week, according to Kpler data.

Richard M. Rossow, CSIS’s senior advisor and chair for India and emerging Asian economies, told CNBC that the “visible warmth” between Mr. Modi and Mr. Putin “could shape the president’s (Trump) calculations regarding the potential use of new secondary tariff authorities” for India’s purchases of Russian oil.

Meanwhile, experts expect New Delhi to use its presence at the SCO and BRICS summits to emphasize the strength of multipolar cooperation. Although India is much closer to the US than Russia or China, it intends to use the SCO and BRICS to show the US that India has other partners.

Pramit Pal Chaudhry, head of South Asia at Eurasia Group, told CNBC that India intends to use these talks to send a message to the United States that “if we continue to see uncertainty, we will pay a price.”

Mr Xi and Mr Modi are scheduled to meet in New Delhi for the BRICS summit after the SCO meeting.

Relations between the two countries have improved over the past year after meeting with Prime Minister Modi in Tianjin last year. Direct flights between India and China have resumed, several old Silk Road trade routes have opened, and India eased rules on Chinese investment in March.

The two countries also agreed last week to work to resolve their long-standing border dispute. However, the issues between the two countries are far from resolved. Local media reports say Indian businessmen and executives are facing “significant difficulties” in obtaining visas for China.

“It’s good that tensions between India and China are limited to trade and visas!” Rossow told CNBC, adding that this was an improvement compared to previous military conflicts.

Experts say the two countries are trying to balance commercial ties.

While India has eased investment restrictions on Chinese companies, it has also imposed some trade restrictions on goods in sectors where India is close to self-sufficient. Meanwhile, China is wary of technology transfers to India, saying it could undermine Beijing’s role in key global supply chains.

For example, India has already emerged as a major supplier of Apple’s smartphones since the company started diversifying its manufacturing base away from China. According to the Indian government, the country is already the world’s second-largest mobile phone maker.

Technology is quickly emerging as a key issue at the Trump-Xi summit in Washington, DC, scheduled for September 24th. China does not officially allow visits. Senior officials from both countries met in Beijing last week as the Trump administration engaged in tough talks over China’s alleged role in financing Iran.

Wang Huning, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, also met with a U.S. delegation in Beijing last week for the “Track 1.5” semi-official dialogue led in part by the Rockefeller-founded nonprofit Asia Society. Kevin Rudd, CEO of the company, said the meeting discussed AI guardrails between the U.S. and China and the potential for bilateral cooperation in global cancer research.

If increasingly powerful large-scale language models fell into the wrong hands, it would cause great damage to both the United States and China, as well as the global economy, Zhao said. He predicts that the two countries’ leaders may establish a mechanism to guide AI development, while extending the customs ceasefire will be critical to bilateral stability.

But Teneo’s Wildau was less optimistic, given the “widespread belief that AI development is a zero-sum game.”