As the United States and Iran exchanged attacks this week, the date for the conflict grows closer.
The US midterm elections on November 3 could be a pivotal moment in the war, as senior advisers to President Donald Trump seek to prevent the conflict from returning to full-scale war before Republicans vote to protect their slim majorities in both houses of Congress.
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There are calls for restraint as the US government shifts its focus to economic pressure on Iran rather than military force. In August, the Trump administration announced so-called “Economic D-Day,” imposing sanctions on 60 companies for promoting oil revenue from trade with Iran and threatening other countries doing business with Iran with secondary sanctions.
At the same time, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in and around the Strait of Hormuz continues to put pressure on Iranian oil exports.
Meanwhile, Vice President J.D. Vance has sought to downplay the war that the United States and Israel started with the Feb. 28 attack on Iran, saying rising fuel prices and public opposition in the United States could become a political liability for the Republican Party ahead of the vote.
But as the US military continues to attack Iran in recent days, there are clear limits to the Trump administration’s restraint, and US leaders say further military action remains an option. “Everything that could happen is on the table,” Vance said this week, including economic, military, diplomatic and covert pressures.
Therefore, the next two months will be particularly difficult. The United States would want to gradually increase economic pressure while avoiding all-out war, but Iran has its own calculations and could respond militarily anyway, forcing the United States into an escalation it wants to avoid before it goes to the polls.
Here’s what we know:
Why are the midterm elections important to President Trump?
The midterm elections will determine whether Republicans can maintain their narrow control of Congress. If the war escalates again by then, more people may vote against the Trump administration.
Containing the fighting until November may therefore prevent an already unpopular war from dominating the political agenda.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in late August found that only 31% of Americans supported the war, while 63% opposed it. Trump’s approval rating has also fallen since the outbreak of hostilities, from 40% to 33%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Officials say the Trump administration never expected the situation to reach this point.
In early March, President Trump claimed the war would last “four or five weeks.” Instead, the conflict has dragged on, and unintended consequences such as soaring energy prices from Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have made America even more unpopular with American households.
U.S. diesel prices hit a record high on Thursday, surpassing the previous high set in 2022, as rising oil prices and refining bottlenecks raised the cost of the fuel that underpins much of the U.S. economy.
This is particularly damaging for a president who campaigned in part on promises to dramatically reduce energy costs and avoid getting into “unnecessary” wars.
The effects of war go beyond the gas pumps. Sustained increases in fuel and transportation costs could affect the prices of food, manufactured goods and other everyday purchases, exacerbating inflation if Democrats have made the cost of living a defining issue in the midterm elections.
A Politico poll in August found that 61% of Americans believe the Iran war has made it more expensive for their families to live, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous month.
Will President Trump be able to contain the war until November?
There are signs that his administration is planning to do just that.
In recent weeks, the US government has stepped up its campaign to isolate Iran economically, maintaining military pressure around the Strait of Hormuz and threatening harsh sanctions on countries that continue to trade with Iran.
President Trump attacked Iran earlier this week to prevent the war from escalating into full-scale conflict again, while also showing that he is willing to respond with sporadic strikes.
At the same time, government officials are trying to reduce the scale of military conflict. At a White House briefing, Vice President J.D. Vance was asked if the Iran war would be resolved by the time of the midterm elections, saying, “I can’t call it a war,” insisting, “There’s no active shooting going on right now.”
Asked when Iran would stop attacking commercial ships, Vance said: “We’re going to have to ask the Iranians.” He also said the conflict was having “a smaller and smaller impact every day” on global energy markets. The United States claims to be escorting around 30 ships through the Strait of Hormuz every night, and officials claim around 18 million barrels of oil were transported this Tuesday. However, shipping data doesn’t seem to fully support this claim.
Analysts warn that trying to maintain a “no war, no peace” strategy with sporadic attacks is risky. Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera this week: “Iran will not bow to (economic) pressure. Both sides may believe they can control escalation, but each new interaction increases the risk of a broader regional conflict.”
One U.S. attack this week also targeted a civilian home where a wedding was being held in Kuhestak, southern Iran, killing at least four people, including a child, and possibly injuring dozens more.
Additionally, the Washington Post reported Sunday that senior leaders of the Army, Navy, and Air Force warned Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth in a written assessment that continuing the war at the current pace is unsustainable and risks compromising U.S. military readiness in other parts of the world.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the US-based Quincy Institute for Responsible State Strategy, told Al Jazeera that this week’s attacks demonstrate a US strategy that remains highly unstable.
“I think it’s very likely that what we’re seeing now is complete military and strategic chaos in the U.S. position, where positions, actions, tactics and strategies keep changing,” Parsi said.
He noted that the US government had imposed broad economic sanctions on Iran in an apparent attempt to make further military intervention unnecessary. “Seven days later, the United States resumed bombing Iran.”
The United States seems to be “jumping from one position to another,” he added.
What is Iran’s calculation?
Although the recent attacks between the United States and Iran have not been as violent as the violent exchanges seen in the early weeks of the war and during two flare-ups in July, the risk of escalation is high. And it may be in Iran’s interest that that happens sooner rather than later.
Iran has become adept at using asymmetric warfare against adversaries with significant military capabilities. It sowed disharmony by using cheap, mass-produced drones to exhaust the supply of America’s very expensive defense systems and by launching attacks on America’s allies around the Gulf.
In particular, the Iranian government has demonstrated its ability to significantly disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially impacting the global economy.
Continued Iranian attacks on U.S. and regional military assets, shipping, and energy infrastructure would put pressure on Washington to retaliate even more forcefully than the several attacks it carried out this week, creating the possibility of an escalatory cycle that could push the two countries back into a broader war, regardless of the White House’s electoral calculations.
Moreover, Washington’s economic strategy of isolating Tehran (an attempt to keep it out of the open) may actually create greater incentives for Iranian retaliation.
Parsi told Al Jazeera that Iranian officials appear to believe that Trump ultimately intends to restart the war on a larger scale, but is simply waiting until after the midterm elections.
This creates a potentially dangerous calculation for Tehran that would be better off escalating now, at a time when President Trump is at his most politically vulnerable. “Iranians’ reaction to this may be to actually try to start a war themselves right before the midterm elections to maximize the pain they can inflict on the U.S. president,” Parsi said.
What will happen after November?
Reuters reported on Wednesday that White House officials are already considering whether to step up military operations against Iran after the Nov. 3 vote, although no decision has yet been made on a return to full-scale conflict.
A Republican victory in the midterm elections could give President Trump even more political space for this option, especially if the administration interprets the results as lacking support for, or at least sufficient disapproval of, the war despite its economic consequences to voters.
But a Republican loss creates a more complicated situation. On the other hand, because Congress controls government funding, the loss of one or both houses of Congress would constrain the government. And if Democrats control the House or Senate, they would have more room to hold hearings for President Trump’s opponents, investigate the U.S. war effort, and challenge demands for additional military spending.
Conversely, experts worry that President Trump may feel less pressure to contain the war because he no longer faces a congressional election.
Parsi therefore warned that an election defeat could have the opposite effect on the Iranian government than expected.
“I’m not so sure that it will necessarily pay off for the Iranians, because a President Trump who is humiliated in the election, who gets the Democratic (House of Representatives) (majority), and maybe even the Democratic Senate, could become an even more desperate and reckless president.”
