A Robin Hood sign during a media event at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York on March 4, 2026.
Adam Gray | Bloomberg | Getty Images
robin hood Piper Sandler’s Wednesday memo said the company’s projected market revenue could increase significantly as football season begins next week.
Analyst Patrick Morley said the World Cup paved the way for an explosion in prediction market trading volume earlier this summer, signaling the potential for strong numbers during the football season.
“Given Kalsi & HOOD’s US-centric user base and the disparity in the popularity of soccer and football in the US, we see the explosive volume of the World Cup as a leading indicator of things to come. The NFL/(NCAA football) season should be an important catalyst for HOOD’s projected market returns for Q3 2026 and Q4 2026,” he wrote.
Founded in June, Rothera is a predictive market venture of Robinhood and Susquehanna. It is a derivatives exchange and clearing house regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Piper Sandler said the outlook was rosy after Robinhood management confirmed that Rossella received approval from the CFTC to offer soccer contracts that cover wins and spreads.
To that end, Morley raised Robinhood’s 2026 and 2027 earnings per share forecasts by 5% and 7%, respectively, and raised his price target from $135 to $145, suggesting an upside of about 35% from Wednesday’s closing price. The analyst also reiterated his Overweight rating on the stock.
Please step aside, Kalsi.
Robinhood shows the Kalsi market to its users, and Morley estimates that about 23% of the forecast market volume has shifted from Kalsi to Rothera since June.
“Robinhood’s move to Rothera accelerated the decline in Robinhood’s share of Kalsi’s sales volume,” Morley said in a note Wednesday. “During last year’s football season, HOOD users accounted for 22% to 30% of Kalsi’s total transaction volume, but that share has declined to mid-single digits as Kalsi seeks to acquire more of its own users,” the analysts wrote.
From June to August, Robinhood’s average monthly forecast market volume increased 88% compared to January to May, primarily due to strong World Cup involvement, Morley added.
Piper Sandler used Kalsi as a proxy to generate predictions for Robinhood’s forecast market returns for the second half of this year.
The company’s analysts predict that from September to December, Robinhood users will trade about 29.7 billion event contracts, generating about $320 million in revenue ($960 million annualized).
Soccer won’t be so dominant for Carsi
Piper Sandler said football accounted for 42% of Carsi’s total transaction volume in the 2025 season, and the platform generated approximately $14 billion in NFL and NCAAF transaction volume.
This time around, Morley doesn’t expect Carsi’s soccer-related contract to account for the bulk of his contract, as he has a variety of contracts outside of major sports.
“Major sports accounted for just 54% of the Kalsi demographic in August 2026, a significant decline from a high of 83% in November 2025,” the memo said.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
