Hawaii is under a state of emergency as powerful Hurricane Lowell is expected to make landfall on Hawaii’s western islands on Monday.
This is the third storm to threaten the state in recent weeks as El Niño continues to rampage through the Pacific hurricane season.
☀️ Get local weather forecasts from the CNN Weather app
According to the National Hurricane Center, the hurricane rapidly strengthened to a Category 4 with winds of 150 mph on Friday morning local time.
The center said Lowell “may strengthen a little more and possibly return to Category 5 strength” later Friday, but is expected to be closer to Category 3 strength by the time it approaches Hawaii. How much damage the hurricane will cause to the archipelago will depend on how close it approaches the westernmost islands of Niihau and Kauai early next week.
A deviation of less than 160 miles to the east from the current projected track could result in even greater direct impacts from a potential major hurricane. Even if that change does not occur, dangerously rough seas, coastal flooding, and rip currents could occur, especially on western islands.
Hawaii Gov. Josh Green on Thursday declared a state of emergency across the state to free up state resources and activate Hawaii National Guard troops. He said six high-water vehicles are also deployed to Kauai.
Kauai County has begun removing drainage systems and relay equipment in flood-prone areas. At least two state parks on the island have banned camping in anticipation of the storm’s impact. According to the county, state land and natural resources officials were scheduled to notify campers on Friday to leave immediately.
“Our state is still recovering from Lara and is not waiting for another storm to approach and prepare,” Green said in a news release. Officials also urged people to prepare a 14-day supply ahead of the storm.
In mid-August, Hurricane Lala dumped several feet of rain on Hawaii’s eastern Big Island, causing severe flooding. Shortly thereafter, Tropical Storm Moke appeared on the scene. Although some rain fell on Hawaii Island in late August, it was a much weaker storm so the impact was not as great.
All eyes are now on Lowell. The hurricane, which briefly reached Category 5 status on Wednesday, is currently heading west, more than 800 miles south of Hawaii, but is expected to sharply turn north this weekend.
The path is eerily similar to that of Hurricane Iniki in 1992, which made landfall on Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane and remains the deadliest storm in the state’s history.
A low pressure system located high in the atmosphere well north of Hawaii is expected to interact with Lowell and pull the hurricane northward. This is a process that has the feel of grabbing a stuffed animal with a crane machine.
But exactly when this interaction occurs, and how much grip the low pressure has, will determine exactly when the sharp turn will occur and how close Lowell will be to Hawaii.
The center in Lowell is located about 240 miles west of Niihau, or about 190 miles west of Kauai, from late Monday afternoon into Monday night, according to the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast. But forecasters are less confident than usual about its exact course this far out before it begins to turn north.
Groups of computer predictive models called ensembles still demonstrate the wide range of consequences of Lowell’s nearest neighbor approach. They range from a potentially catastrophic landfall on Kauai or Oahu to a wake more than 800 miles west of Niihau. That means the waves will be a little rougher and maybe even a few rain showers.
Confidence in the hurricane’s path will increase once it completes its sharp turn this weekend.
With this in mind, it is difficult to say with certainty how much wind and rain the islands will experience, but it is clear that rough surf, coastal flooding and rip currents are likely to start as early as this weekend.
Lowell will be strong enough to stir the ocean outward from the center, creating large waves and sending more water than usual to Hawaii’s southern coast. Tide levels will also be near their highest levels this month, further increasing the risk of flooding.
The National Weather Service warned of the possibility of major coastal flooding on Kauai and the possibility of major coastal flooding on Oahu.
