Germany’s far-right party AfD aims for landmark state victory

Voting begins on Sunday in Germany’s eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, in a closely watched election that could see Alternative for Germany (AfD) become the first far-right party to hold power at the state level since World War II.

The party has been conducting preliminary polls for months under its 35-year-old lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, and there is a good chance the AfD will win an absolute majority on Sunday night, especially if several smaller parties fail to clear Germany’s 5% threshold for entry into parliament.

The vote is seen as a barometer for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government, which is seeking to chip away at the AfD’s popularity by taking tougher stances on immigration and security.

Approximately 1.7 million voters have until 6pm (16:00 Japan time) to cast their votes before the polls close, with the first results expected shortly after. State election officials will release their first estimates of turnout starting at noon.

Recent polls show support for the AfD at just over 40%, while Merz’s Christian Democratic Party (CDU) stands at 23%.

An absolute majority would allow the AfD to sidestep efforts by mainstream parties to keep it out of power by refusing to cooperate with it under its long-standing “firewall” policy.

Achieving an absolute majority is a high hurdle in Germany’s proportional electoral system, which also aims to encourage coalition governments and make it difficult for one party to rule alone.

If the AfD falls short of a majority, a CDU-led government led by incumbent state premier Sven Schulz is most likely, but the exact shape of the coalition will depend on which parties join.

Sunday’s vote could be followed by weeks of coalition talks.

For the AfD, the Saxony-Anhalt state election is a stepping stone towards its larger ambitions of securing national power in the next federal election, scheduled for 2029.

“Whatever the outcome of tomorrow’s elections, we have already made history,” Siegmund said at his final rally Saturday night.

“Because what we started here in Saxony-Anhalt and now spreading across Germany can no longer be stopped,” he told a crowd in the state capital, Magdeburg.

If the AfD wins, it plans to move schools and cultural institutions to more traditional values, marginalize immigrants and overhaul the public broadcasting system.

But without an absolute majority, the firewall will make it difficult for the AfD, which is classified as a “far-right extremist” group by the National Security Agency, to enter power.

Siegmund, who arrived to vote in his hometown of Tangermünde on his blue Simson moped, was greeted by a crowd of excited fans, but ruled out forming a coalition with another party.

He argues that it is impossible for the AfD to govern with the mainstream politicians who have cornered Germany for the past 30 years, and instead aims to win more than 45% of the vote.

If this is not achieved, complex coalition negotiations could begin, depending on which parties can meet the 5% hurdle.

Opinion polls show that one of the CDU’s current coalition partners, the Liberal Democratic Party, has less support, while another, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), has less than 10% support.

The small, far-left Sahrawi Wagenknecht Union (BSW), the only party that has not ruled out a coalition with the AfD, is also likely to miss out.

A combination of the SPD and the Greens alone may not be enough to win a majority, as Schulz is favored by voters in opinion polls as their first choice for leadership, but the CDU has ruled out a coalition with far-left parties that could help reach that threshold.

One option could be a minority government led by Shultz that relies on passive tolerance from the left. This is the model used in the neighboring state of Thuringia in eastern Germany.