Hawaii is under a state of emergency, effective Monday, as powerful Hurricane Lowell heads toward the state. This is the third storm to hit Hawaii in just over three weeks as the El Niño phenomenon rages on during the Pacific hurricane season.
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Lowell is a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 195 mph and moving northwest at 6 mph early Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center. It fluctuates between categories as it goes through the normal cycle of major hurricanes.
The storm is expected to be near Category 2 strength when it approaches Hawaii. The center of Lowell is expected to pass within about 130 miles west of Niihau or about 270 miles west of Kauai late Monday night into Tuesday morning, the hurricane center said.
This distance will keep the worst of the hurricane’s winds offshore, but Hawaii will still feel Lowell’s effects through dangerous surf and heavy rain.
For the past several days, Lowell has been trapped beneath a weak upper-level area of high pressure that acts as a force field over Hawaii, forcing the storm to continue moving west and remain south of the island.
However, this high pressure system will weaken this weekend as a trough of cold air moves in from the North Pacific and interacts with nearby low pressure. Once freed from the influence of the high pressure system, Lowell makes a dramatic right turn, circling north and skimming the western islands of Hawaii.
The situation is similar to Hurricane Iniki in 1992, which made landfall on Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane and remains the deadliest storm in Hawaii’s history. But this time, Lowell is expected to remain far offshore to avoid a direct hit.
Hawaii Gov. Josh Green on Thursday declared a state of emergency across the state to free up state resources and activate Hawaii National Guard troops. He said six high-water vehicles are also deployed to Kauai.
A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Kauai and Niihau on Sunday, meaning tropical storm conditions with wind speeds of 59 miles per hour or more are possible within the next 48 hours. Tropical storm-force winds are likely to be confined to the western islands.
Swells from Lowell are already causing dangerous waves across the state, and a high surf advisory has been issued for south-facing coasts. Waves could reach up to 4 feet into Sunday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
Heavy rains will threaten the entire state. Lowell is expected to see 4 to 6 inches of rain on Kauai, Niihau and Hawaii Island, with isolated rainfall amounts of up to 10 inches possible. Oahu, Molokai, Lanai and Maui are expected to see 2 to 4 inches of rain, but up to 8 inches could reach the mountainous areas of these islands.
The National Hurricane Center warned of “significant flash flooding and landslides” in particularly rugged terrain.
El Niño is making storms more likely in the central Pacific this year, adding to the already warming oceans caused by climate change, warming the region’s ocean waters and weakening the upper-level winds that drive storms.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts an above-normal season in the central Pacific, with between five and 13 cyclones expected.
